The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has once again reduced the country’s cotton production estimate for the current season 2022-23 to 298.35 lakh bales of 170 kg each. Last month, CAI had to face criticism from weaving industry organisations who questioned lowering the production. CAI said that is new estimation is based on the recommendation of crop committee of 25 members who have received pressing data from 11 state associations.
After lowering of cotton production estimates, CAI expects cotton prices to go up to ₹75,000 per candy of 356 kg. But downstream industry expects that cotton prices will not see much rise because of slower demand from the developed world, more specifically from the US and Europe—the largest buyers of garments and other textiles.
Atul Ganatra, president of CAI, said in a press release that the trade body has reduced its production estimate for 2022-23 season by 4.65 lakh bales to 298.35 lakh bales. The production may further come down by 2 lakh bales in Maharashtra and Telangana each, 0.50 lakh bales in Tamil Nadu and 0.15 lakh bales in Odisha. CAI did not revise production estimates for other major states.
CAI said that the committee members will keep a close watch on the cotton pressing numbers and arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the next reports.
CAI had projected cotton production at 313 lakh bales in March 2023 report. Cotton output was projected at 321 and 330 lakh bales in the February and January 2023 reports, respectively. Last year, production was finally estimated at 307 lakh bales after multiple downward revisions.
According to CAI, the supply between October 2022 to April 2023 is estimated at 263.06 lakh bales, which consists of the arrivals of 224.17 lakh bales, imports of 7 lakh bales and the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales. Consumption was estimated at 179 lakh bales while the export shipments up to April 30, 2023 are estimated at 12 lakh bales. Stock at the end of April 2023 is estimated at 72.06 lakh bales, including 52.06 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 20 lakh with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc).
Total 345.24 lakh bales cotton supply is estimated till end of the current season 2022-23 (October 2022-September 2023). It will consist of the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales, production of 298.35 lakh bales and imports of 15 lakh bales.
The domestic consumption for the season is estimated at 311 lakh bales, i.e., at the same level estimated previously. The exports for the season have been estimated at 20 lakh bales which are 5 lakh bales lower than estimated previously. Last year, the exports were estimated at 43 lakh bales. The carry-over stock is now estimated at 14.24 lakh bales.