Home » Debt Restructuring, Austerity and the IMF: a Panacea or an Exacerbation? Part 4

Debt Restructuring, Austerity and the IMF: a Panacea or an Exacerbation? Part 4

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Photo courtesy of insidethegames The implication of debt on human rights is of significant concern. Many countries in the world are either already in a debt crisis or approaching it. This is not a new phenomenon. The ability of many countries to service debt and meet the increasing demand for health services was made worse during the Covid pandemic. According to reports, some governments chose to borrow more funds to support at risk groups and build health infrastructure to respond to the pandemic. During this period, many countries faced this tough choice. Due to the pandemic, all over the world tax revenues declined and debt repayments increased while demand for expenditure rose. This had a negative impact on the provision of health services everywhere. In particular, the focus on Covid-19 has often been at the expense of other health concerns. Lockdown protocols also further aggravated health disparities between rural and urban areas against a stark historical backdrop of existing health services, often failing to meet universal human rights standards of availability, accessibility, acceptability and quality. Obligations of state The UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (CESCR) has emphasised the obligation of states to respect, fulfil and protect the right to health of their populations. This right is guaranteed under various international and regional treaties that many states have ratified, including Article 12 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR). This requires states to ensure the highest attainable standards of physical and mental health. Implementation of these obligations, however, has been hindered by budgetary constraints, corruption and a lack of political will to prioritize health, even in countries that have ratified these agreements. Let me highlight the situation in Ghana, which is undergoing a similar process of restructuring as Sri Lanka is experiencing. Ghana as a valuable lesson against austerity Ghana has a similar economic and political trajectory to Sri Lanka. It has been bailed out a number of times by the IMF without tackling its structural issues of wastage of government revenue, corruption, nepotism and incompetence. It is a country whose economic model is based on products that are prey to global price fluctuations and also suffering from a seeming inability to build an economy that meets the needs of the majority of its population, not a well-heeled minority. Ghana is one of the world’s biggest cocoa producers and the leading gold producer in Africa. The price of goods has been on the rise at an average of 41% in the past year. Ghana overspent like Sri Lanka during its good times. It did not save much to help when facing downturns or external shocks, which were largely caused by price cycles for its exports, oil, cocoa and gold and also due to excessive fiscal spending during elections. Ghana’s polycrisis Like Sri Lanka, lacking fiscal discipline, and its practice of depending on foreign financing left Ghana vulnerable to investor speculation and investment selloffs. Starting in early 2022, Ghana faced a polycrisis – a complex of economic, financial and social crises. The real growth in GDP declined due to rising price pressures, mainly because of food and petroleum imports, and global supply chain bottlenecks that also contributed to rising inflation. To tame inflation, interest rates were hiked from 4.5% to 19%. The local currency, the Ghana cedi, depreciated by almost 20% against the US dollar, making imports more expensive, thus escalating prices of goods and services. Ghana technically defaulted on its domestic and international debt in February 2023. Ghana’s unsustainable debt levels forced it to seek an IMF bailout in July 2022. In mid-May 2023, the IMF granted Ghana a three year loan package of $3 billion to help it restore macroeconomic stability. Its conditions were to reduce public debt from an estimated 105% to 55% of GDP by 2028. This was the 17th loan package Ghana had received from the IMF since 1957. So, every four years Ghana had to go to the IMF with the begging bowl. Balance of payment crisis This deficit in the balance of payments is supposed to be addressed partly by the IMF loan package. Ghana was forced to seek IMF assistance in dealing with global and local economic shocks such as the economic slowdown in China, the global commodity price slump, irresponsible spending made during the elections in 2012 and 2016 and a protracted domestic electricity crisis. Of course, there were external economic shocks due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukraine war. Yet domestically, the regime was inefficient and irresponsible in managing its finances. The country was burdened with excessive borrowing and led to a looming debt crisis. Ghana’s debt comprises domestic dollar bonds, cocoa bills, pension funds and debt owed to the central bank. Ghana has reached an agreement with banks to restructure 15 billion Ghana cedi ($1.36 billion) of locally issued US dollar bonds and cocoa bills. About 85 percent of eligible bondholders participated in this process. Ghana wishes to reduce its external debt interest repayments by $10.5 billion over the next three years under the IMF bailout secured in May this year. Ghana received its first instalment of $600 million to be used to boost the country’s foreign currency reserves, help stabilise its currency and support the budget. However, many believe that despite this IMF deal, Ghana is still not out of trouble. The receipt of further loan instalments depends on how Ghana performs in terms of external debt arrangements, socioeconomic reforms – austerity and necessary trade-offs – and central bank reforms. Governance and winner takes all approach Ghana has deep structural economic problems that require a multi stakeholder approach to resolve. Unfortunately, the entrenched pervasive system of governance of Ghana, like in Sri Lanka, based on winner takes all approach distorted a broad national dialogue on what has to be done and how it needs to be done. It must fix structural problems such as over-reliance on exports of physical and human commodities and utilizing strategy of “export-led recovery.” In addition society, particularly the privileged classes, needs to live within its means. The country had virtually no foreign reserves so it did not have any means to pay in dollars for its imports. So it’s no wonder many Ghanaians have been nervously waiting for the IMF bailout. As usual, to qualify for the IMF bailout, it had to undergo debt restructuring with its creditors. Ghana is going through lengthy negotiations with its creditors. Other leading agencies such as the World Bank have pledged to help the country come out of this messy situation. Investors are expected to return without fear of losing their money. Ghana’s IMF experience Given the country’s past experience with the IMF, it is doubtful to what extent its latest cash infusion will help solve Ghana’s long term economic problems. As mentioned earlier, the most recent IMF assistance came in 2019. Like in Sri Lanka, this need for regular assistance is the result of wastage and mismanagement and an inability to enlarge the economy for the benefit of all by successive governments over many years. If there is no system change, the question remains whether the situation will get messy again. It could happen at the end of the three year IMF bailout. Given past loans and an inability to bring in transparency, the rule of law, accountability and create an economy that benefits the majority of the population, the country could expect another bailout in the near future. This is a bleak scenario for Ghanaians who barely survive economically. Read Part 3 here: https://groundviews.org/2023/08/14/debt-restructuring-austerity-and-the-imf-a-panacea-or-an-exacerbation-part-3/
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