Indian Forecasts on Cyclone Ditwah Re-examined: Questions Emerge Over Preparedness
December 09, Colombo (LNW): Sri Lanka received advance notice of Cyclone Ditwah long before it unleashed severe destruction across the island, with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said to have begun sharing data nearly two weeks ahead of the storm’s landfall, Indian media reports claim.
According to The Indian Express, the IMD had identified the likelihood of a developing weather system as early as November 13 and later issued an advisory on potential cyclonic activity on November 20.
From November 23 onwards, the department reportedly released detailed three-hourly and six-hourly updates on the system’s strengthening trajectory, much of which was passed to Sri Lankan officials through regular communication channels.
Despite the early flow of information, Sri Lanka was unable to respond on a scale that matched the magnitude of the disaster, the report suggested. It noted that the country lacks a comprehensive evacuation framework capable of moving vast populations with little notice.
The heavy rainfall — reaching around 400 millimetres within a day and repeating over several days — coupled with the geography of the eastern coast, produced catastrophic flooding, landslides, and coastal surge.
The analysis also pointed out that the storm formed in an uncommon zone south of Sri Lanka, an area not typically associated with cyclone development. Unlike India, which experiences such systems more frequently, Sri Lanka’s limited exposure meant it was less equipped for the storm’s prolonged coastal path, which skirted the shoreline rather than cutting across the island’s interior.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained that Ditwah was categorised only as a “cyclonic storm,” one of the milder grades on the cyclone scale, and that Sri Lanka historically experiences very few such events.
Sri Lanka’s Health Minister and Cabinet Spokesman Nalinda Jayatissa, however, dismissed accusations that authorities had prior knowledge of the cyclone’s intensity. His comments followed criticism by the opposition over the timing of reservoir gate operations, with some alleging that delayed action worsened the flooding.
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