Sri Lanka to Vote in Presidential Elections on September 21

Sri Lanka will vote in presidential elections on September 21, the Election Commission announced today. The commission added that nominations will be accepted on August 15.

This is the country’s first election since the 2020 general election. The government indefinitely postponed the local council election, which was to be held in 2023.

The main candidates in the fray are President Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and National People’s Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayaka. Former army commander and parliamentarian Sarath Fonseka and Minister of Justice Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe have also announced their candidacies. Fonseka is a member of Premadasa’s party Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), and Wijeyadasa is a member of Wickremesinghe’s cabinet.

Given the political turmoil of the past two years, this is likely to be the toughest-fought presidential election in recent Sri Lankan history.

There were doubts whether the presidential election would be held on time as the Wickremesinghe administration was known to be not keen on it being held at this juncture. The vastly unpopular Wickremesinghe, who became president in July 2022, after the resignation of his predecessor Gotabaya Rajapaksa, has been compared to a dead man walking.

Several attempts, presumably at Wickremesinghe’s behest, were made to postpone elections by filing Fundamental Rights petitions at the Supreme Court. The apex court has quashed these attempts, stating that the Constitution is clear about the term of the president.

The government has introduced the 22nd amendment to the Constitution, a bill many see as a blatant attempt at postponing the election. These moves are being justified by political forces that call Wickremesinghe a traitor to the nation for the past 30 years, illustrating a complete realignment of Sri Lankan political forces; itself an indication of how important the election is for all political parties.

Sri Lanka has witnessed much tumult in recent years. A severe economic crisis triggered mass protests in 2023 that sent Gotabaya Rajapaksa packing. It also led to the collapse of the Rajapaksa family’s dominance in Sri Lankan politics, which was built on militant Sinhala nationalism and clientelism. Their project, popular after the end of the civil war in 2009, disintegrated amid economic crises and political upheaval. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the Rajapaksas’ party, now fragmented, has lost its appeal and is likely to back Wickremesinghe in the coming election.

In response to an economic crisis, a culmination of neoliberal economic policies that Wickremesinghe’s uncle Junius Richard Jayawardane introduced as president in the late 1970s, the Wickremesinghe regime has adopted an authoritarian neoliberalism, instead of fighting for comprehensive debt relief, strategic investments, and a shift away from the International Monetary Fund’s austerity measures to achieve sustainable economic stability. Millions of Sri Lankans have lost jobs, half of the country’s children are hungry, and professionals are leaving the country in droves.

At the expense of future growth, Wickremesinghe has cut a deal with the IMF, and foreign lenders to push back foreign debt servicing till 2028, creating a sense of “stability” among the urban middle classes. Wickremesinghe and his allies are betting that a substantial number of people would choose “stability” over the necessary political and economic course correction. They are also engaged in old-fashioned mass-scale bribing of the poor, using state funds.

On the other hand, there is a strong desire for substantial political change, driven by the belief that the current politicians are responsible for the nation’s problems. This belief is especially prevalent among the youth. This desire for change is epitomized by the NPP, which advocates against the corrupt elite establishment and promotes a new political discourse.

The NPP consists of a group of left-leaning academics, professionals, and civil society activists who work with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The JVP was established in the 1960s by sections of the China Wing of the Communist Party of Sri Lanka. It led powerful insurgencies in 1971 and 1987-89, but has never held power. It established the NPP a decade ago to appeal to a broader section of society and has been successful in filling the vacuum created by the 2022 protest movement.

This desire for change is seen as destabilizing by the establishment, and many mainstream politicians warn against political experiments and advocate for maintaining the status quo. The possibility of change is a serious concern for politicians who have been a part of previous governments and are allegedly involved in corruption. These include politicians affiliated with Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP),  the SLPP, Maithripala Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party, among others.

Ever since independence, Sri Lanka has been run by political leaders who went to the same schools, married into each other’s families, went into the same professions, etc., and as in many other developing nations, they had a tacit understanding among themselves that no one would be punished for misdeeds committed while in power.

Unlike these old, established parties, the NPP does not extend such guarantees. The old political elite across party lines is therefore worried that they might be punished for their past transgressions.

Thus, it is highly likely that the UNP, SLPP, and a section of the SJB will join hands to defeat the NPP and maintain the status quo.

On the other hand, young people who desire political change, are one of the driving forces of the NPP, and the party has been trying to convince the educated youth, who are leaving the country in droves, to stay and fight for better economic and political conditions.

It’s obvious that both sides see the coming presidential election as a zero-sum game. The traditional parties have come together to create a cordon sanitaire around the NPP. The NPP has posited the coming election as a decisive moment that will bring change.  It states that the Ranil Wickremesinghe government, which is backed by most of the political forces that have governed the country since independence, is selling national assets, entering into disastrous agreements with foreign nations, and creating divisions that would destroy the country if it is allowed to remain in power.

With the Elections Commission announcing the election schedule, the poll bugle has been sounded. Sri Lanka stands at a critical juncture. The outcome of this election will determine not only who will be the country’s next president but also redefine Sri Lanka’s political landscape, testing whether change or business as usual will guide the nation’s future.