Sajith Premadasa Leads in Presidential Election Voting Intent

Photo courtesy of The Leader

Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) MRP provisional estimates of Presidential Election voting intent in all adults in June show that support for SJB leader Sajith Premadasa increased to 43% (+4) but decreased for NPP/JVP leader AK Dissanayake to 30% (-6) compared to May. Support for President Ranil Wickremesinghe increased to 20% (+3) while a generic SLPP candidate runs at 7% (-1). However, the June estimates were associated with a substantial increase in model uncertainty so the two leading candidates remain within the margin of error.

These estimates use the IHP SLOTS Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model. This update is for all adults and uses data from 18,213 interviews conducted from October 1, 2021 to July 21, 2024 including 446 interviews during June 2024. The margins of error for June estimates are substantially higher than the previous months, which appears to reflect increased volatility in voter preferences so the two leading candidates remain neck and neck.

IHP’s SLOTS MRP methodology first estimates the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about respondents and their opinions, in this case, “If there was a Presidential Election today, who would you vote for?” in a multilevel statistical model that also smooths month to month changes.

SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection.

All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location, and voting in the 2019 presidential and 2020 general elections.