The Threat of Insurgency in India’s Assam Continues

On August 15, an email citing bomb threats was sent to several media houses by the outlawed United Liberation Front of Assam Independent (ULFA-I) group led by Paresh Baruah. The group claimed that they had planted bombs at 24 locations across Assam, which were supposed to explode between 6 a.m. and 12 p.m. on August 15, India’s Independence Day. However, fortunately, due to what ULFA-I called “technical failure,” the bombs did not explode.

Following this, the state police was soon mobilized into action and multiple special investigation teams were formed. Upon inspection, IED-like material along with some chemicals and circuits were recovered from some 10 sites among those listed by ULFA-I. Since then, two of those cases have been handed over to the National Investigation Agency (NIA) by the state police and a few arrests have also been made. 

This incident poses a significant setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which had claimed to make Assam an insurgency-free state. Additionally, it also raises several questions about the credibility of the state’s intelligence agencies. The Press Trust of India reported that the “police had no clue on the existence of the bombs until ULFA-I itself informed about these, despite the entire state being on high alert on the occasion of Independence Day celebrations.”

In response to the serious situation, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma who also holds the home ministry portfolio for the state, urged Paresh Barua to not harm the state’s progress and to refrain from creating a hostile environment that might deter investors from coming to Assam. He added that “if the ULFA-I tries to destabilize peace in the state, it will adversely impact the future of the youths of Assam.”

This incident is particularly notable as the Tata Group recently inked an agreement with the Assam state government, wherein over 170 acres of land has been given on lease for a 60-year period which is to be utilized for setting up a mega semiconductor plant. While the deal has significant potential to generate employment for the locals and drive industrialization in the region, it remains to be seen how investors will navigate the potential resurgence of rebel outfits and their associated activities. 

ULFA-I’s Resurgence

Despite the signing of a tripartite peace agreement on December 29, 2023, between the Indian government, Assam state government and the pro-talk faction of ULFA-I led by Chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa, the goal of achieving lasting peace in the region continues to remain elusive. Therefore, a resolution with the hold-out ULFA-I faction is crucial, as the group’s actions continue to derail the peace process. 

With India’s eastern neighborhood in turmoil – marked by the fall of the Awami-League led government in Bangladesh and rising anti-India sentiments, as well as civil war in Myanmar under the military junta – the rebel outfits in Assam are likely to gain ground. As a consequence, India will continue to face heightened security threats along its porous border states, particularly in the form of cross-border terrorism and influx of illegal immigrants. 

According to veteran journalist Rajeev Bhattacharyya in his book “ULFA: The Mirage of Dawn,” the ULFA-I faction had recruited over 300 cadres in Myanmar around early 2022. With growing instability in the region and Baruah’s desperate attempts at reviving the rebel outfit, these numbers are likely to see a significant rise.   

Additionally, a senior officer in the special branch of Assam police stated that despite constant operations across four districts – Dibrugarh, Charaideo, Tinsukia, and Jorhat – where the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act remains applicable, ULFA-I continues to maintain its stronghold. 

Meanwhile, Baruah, the mastermind behind ULFA-I, is believed to be taking shelter in areas along the China-Myanmar border, where insurgent groups maintain strong control. Hence, ULFA-I cadres are still carrying out unlawful activities in eastern Assam districts and fleeing to their camps in Myanmar. The scope for counterinsurgency actions remains limited with a lack of cooperation from the military junta on the Myanmar side. 

Despite having lost its popularity and credibility as a revolutionary group, ULFA-I continues to operate as a rebel outfit, reportedly sustained by funding from Pakistan and China, as well as its extortion activities across borders. Additionally, the group continues to exploit sensitive issues such as the rights of Assam’s Indigenous people while stoking tensions between locals and migrants from the rest of India. The outfit continues to demand sovereignty of Assam from India, accusing the state of failing to provide adequate safeguards against issues of illegal immigration.

In line with that, amid ongoing unrest in Bangladesh, the Indian government has ramped up border security measures, deploying many Border Security Force personnel on high alert across the Bangladesh-India border, particularly in four districts across Assam – Cachar, Karimganj, Dhubri, and South Salmara – that share borders with Bangladesh. 

However, on August 18, reports emerged of a security breach near southern Assam’s Karimganj district and western Assam’s South Salmara-Mankachar district, resulting in the entry of 16 illegal immigrants from Bangladesh into India. Of those 16, four have been apprehended, while the search for the remaining individuals continues. 

Based on confessions from those apprehended, they used the water route in the dark of night to cross the border and enter into Assam’s Dhubri district. From there they were to be taken by middle men to Tamil Nadu, where they would be then settled.  

Alarmingly, Chief Minister Sarma noted that one of them had entered India for the second time and was also carrying an Aadhar card. 

Hence, with the escalation in cross-border tensions and high potential for influx of more illegal immigrants, rebel outfits such as ULFA-I may find new reasons for justifying its actions against the state. As such, India must prioritize its internal security and tighten its borders while seeking cooperation from its neighbors as and when possible. 

Way Forward

India’s approach to tackling rebel outfits such as ULFA-I must be thoughtful, unlike the time when it had unleashed its armed forces in the late 1990s in the form of Operation Bajrang. The military response caused tensions and strife in the lives of innocent local people. Instead, a joint agreement between the Myanmar military and Indian forces should be explored, similar to 1995’s Operation Golden Bird, to eradicate ULFA-I camps along India-Myanmar border areas. 

On the other hand, in the case of Bangladesh, it is a well-known fact that after the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League party came into power, Bangladesh-India counter-insurgency measures saw great success forcing several senior functionaries to surrender, thereby leading to the formation of the pro-talk ULFA faction. Now, with Hasina forced from power and the Bangladesh government in limbo, India must keep talks open. 

As pointed out by Debapriya Bhattacharya of Bangladesh’s Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), “India must accept the verdict of the people of Bangladesh and seek to rebuild its relationship based on mutual trust and interest focusing on a people-to-people approach rather than a party approach.” 

At the state level, the government must take concrete steps under Clause 6 of the Assam Accord to secure the indigenous rights of the people while ensuring that their actions do not exacerbate tensions between the locals and outsiders of the state, which could inadvertently fuel ULFA-I’s resurgence in the region.  

Lastly, the dual policy of dismantling ULFA-I camps along border areas and keeping open channels of communications should be pursued, offering ULFA-I functionaries the opportunity to surrender and reintegrate into mainstream society while also utilizing their support for intelligence gathering activities.