SJB and NPP/JVP Lead in General Election Voting Intent

Photo courtesy of IFES

The latest estimates of general election voting intent from Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) SLOTS MRP model show no substantial changes in August compared to the previous month. The SJB and NPP/JVP led and were in a statistical tie with 29% and 28% of voter support respectively followed by the SLPP with 19%, the UNP with 9% and ITAK with 4%. Support for the SJB and NPP/JVP dropped by 3 and 2 percent respectively in August compared to July but the changes are within the margin of error. The August estimates are provisional and carry a margin of error of 2–3% for the two leading parties.

SLOTS polling director, Dr. Ravi Rannan-Eliya commented: “Our general election voting intent survey reveals substantially more support for the SLPP in a general election than for their presidential candidate, and similarly more support for Ranil Wickremesinghe’s presidential candidacy than for the UNP. It would be unwise to write off the SLPP as a political force, since many SLPP voters appeared in August to be switching their presidential vote to Ranil Wickremesinghe. Of course, they could also do this using their second preference votes, which suggests limited voter understanding of that option.”

Compared to IHP’s August release, the estimates of NPP/JVP and SJB support in July 2024 were revised downward by 2 points each. These estimates are for all adults, not just for likely voters. They are based on the January 2024 revision of the IHP SLOTS Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model.

This August 2024 update is based on 19,721 interviews conducted with adults across Sri Lanka since October 2021 including 1,153 interviews during August. IHP’s SLOTS MRP methodology first estimates the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about respondents and their opinions, in this case, “If there was a General Election today, which party would you vote for?” in a multilevel statistical model.

SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection and face-to-face interviews. IHP estimates voting intent using an adaptation of Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP), with multiple imputations to account for uncertainties in its modelling, exploiting data from all SLOTS interviews to estimate voting in a particular month.

The August 2024 MRP estimates are based on 19,721 interviews conducted from October 1, 2021- September 2, 2024, including 1,153 interviews conducted in August 2024.

All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location, and voting in the 2019 presidential and 2020 general elections.