Dissanayaka leads Sri Lanka presidential race
Sri Lanka’s ongoing financial crisis has become the defining issue of its latest presidential election, with Marxist politician Anura Kumara Dissanayaka emerging as the likely winner. As of September 22, preliminary results from the poll showed Dissanayaka leading with just over 40 percent of the vote, placing him on track to become the island nation’s next leader. His surge in popularity reflects widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the unprecedented economic collapse that began in 2022.
The election has been marked by a clear rejection of the austerity measures imposed by incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who came to power in the midst of Sri Lanka’s economic meltdown. Wickremesinghe, despite securing a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout that stabilized the economy, trails in a distant third with only 17 percent of the vote. Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa holds second place with approximately 33 percent of the vote, but it appears that Dissanayaka has won the trust of the electorate by promising a break from the current administration’s policies.
Dissanayaka, the leader of the People’s Liberation Front (JVP), is an unexpected figure to emerge victorious in a presidential race. His Marxist party, which led two failed uprisings in the 1970s and 1980s that left tens of thousands dead, had long been on the fringes of Sri Lankan politics. In the most recent parliamentary election of 2020, the party won less than 4 percent of the vote, struggling to resonate with a populace largely indifferent to their calls for systemic change.
However, the country’s economic collapse has shifted the political landscape. Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debt in 2022, and the aftermath saw widespread food, fuel, and medicine shortages. Public frustration with the established political elite reached a boiling point, forcing former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country as protesters stormed his residence. The economic crisis opened the door for Dissanayaka to present himself as an alternative to Sri Lanka’s traditionally dominant political families, promising a new beginning for the island nation.
His platform has focused on tackling the “corrupt political culture” that he argues has enabled decades of mismanagement, leading to the current crisis. Dissanayaka has tapped into deep-rooted anger by pledging to renegotiate Sri Lanka’s IMF agreement, which has been criticized for imposing harsh austerity measures that have disproportionately affected the poor.
Though Dissanayaka’s campaign has capitalized on public frustration with Wickremesinghe’s belt-tightening policies, his party has been clear that they do not intend to scrap the IMF deal outright. Instead, Bimal Ratnayake, a senior member of the party’s politburo, has said that Dissanayaka plans to renegotiate the terms to reduce the tax burden on ordinary citizens. Specifically, the JVP aims to cut back income taxes, which were doubled under Wickremesinghe’s administration, and reduce sales taxes on essential goods like food and medicine.
“There is a provision to renegotiate,” said Ratnayake, noting that the four-year bailout programme could continue with modifications that alleviate the strain on Sri Lanka’s struggling population. Despite the stark ideological differences between Dissanayaka’s Marxist party and the IMF’s market-oriented policies, the JVP appears willing to work within the existing framework to deliver immediate relief to Sri Lankans.
Wickremesinghe’s decision to implement austerity measures, including sharp tax hikes, has drawn the ire of many Sri Lankans who feel they are paying the price for decades of poor governance and corruption. While these policies helped restore some measure of stability to the country and ended the immediate shortages of basic necessities, they also pushed millions into poverty. The official poverty rate in Sri Lanka doubled to 25 percent between 2021 and 2022, leaving more than 2.5 million people living on less than $3.65 a day.
Wickremesinghe’s economic policies, while stabilizing, have made him deeply unpopular. Even though his administration brought an end to the violent unrest that saw protestors storm government buildings in 2022, his political standing has been irreparably damaged by the hardships his policies imposed. His failure to connect with an electorate suffering under the weight of his austerity measures has all but sealed his fate in this election.
If confirmed as the winner, Anura Kumara Dissanayaka will take the reins of a country still mired in deep economic trouble. His promise to alter, but not abandon, the IMF deal is likely to face challenges, both domestically and internationally. The global financial institutions that have supported Sri Lanka’s recovery will undoubtedly keep a close watch on Dissanayaka’s economic policies, particularly as they relate to the restructuring of the country’s debt and its future fiscal stability.
In the meantime, the 76 percent voter turnout in September 21st election signals that Sri Lankans remain engaged and hopeful for change, despite the immense difficulties they face. Dissanayaka has positioned himself as a champion of the people, vowing to confront the entrenched corruption that has long defined Sri Lankan politics. However, whether he can navigate the complexities of governance and deliver on his promises remains to be seen.
The final results of the election are expected later on September 22, but the early lead for Dissanayaka indicates that Sri Lanka may be on the brink of a dramatic political shift. The election, defined by discontent and economic hardship, has once again demonstrated the power of crisis to reshape the political order.
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