India-China relations defining future of Asia and beyond
In recent years, the dynamics between India and China have come to the forefront of global discussions on geopolitics, with their interactions seen as crucial not just for the future of Asia but for the entire world. During an event hosted by the Asia Society in New York, India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar emphasized the importance of this bilateral relationship, stating that the “parallel rise” of India and China presents a “very unique problem” in today’s global politics. According to Jaishankar, this relationship is not only pivotal to Asia’s trajectory but has wider implications for a multi-polar global order.
The world is witnessing the unprecedented growth of two Asian powers-India and China. With their populations each exceeding a billion, their simultaneous rise is reshaping the global order. Jaishankar noted that for the world to be truly multi-polar, Asia must also reflect this diversity of power. “If the world is to be multi-polar, Asia has to be multi-polar. And, therefore, this relationship will influence not just the future of Asia but, in that way, perhaps the future of the world as well,” he said.
This observation holds significant weight in the context of the current global power structure, where the balance of power is gradually shifting away from traditional Western centers to emerging economies, particularly in Asia. The combined economic, military, and diplomatic clout of China and India places them at the heart of this transition. While competition between the two is inevitable, how they manage their rivalry will have a profound impact on global geopolitics.
Despite their shared economic interests, the relationship between India and China remains marred by historical and territorial disputes. The most significant flashpoint between the two nations is the contested Line of Actual Control (LAC), the poorly demarcated border that stretches for over 3,500 kilometers. Tensions boiled over in 2020 when troops from both sides clashed in the Galwan Valley, resulting in fatalities on both sides-the first such casualties in decades. This skirmish brought India-China relations to a low point, with both countries ramping up military presence along the border.
In the aftermath of the Galwan incident, over a dozen rounds of talks have taken place to de-escalate the situation, yet the process has been slow and fraught with challenges. Jaishankar, speaking about the ongoing border situation, acknowledged the complexity of resolving these issues. He noted that while 75 percent of the disengagement problems have been “sorted out,” some patrolling issues along the LAC remain unresolved.
“The relationship is currently significantly disturbed,” Jaishankar remarked, reflecting on the turbulent nature of their ties. While efforts are underway to stabilize the border situation, the LAC remains a symbol of distrust and a significant obstacle to fully normalizing relations between the two countries.
At the heart of India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is the concept of multi-polarity. India has been striving to become a more influential player in global governance institutions, including the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). However, China’s opposition to India’s bid for a permanent seat on the UNSC highlights the complexities of this aspiration. China’s status as a permanent member of the council gives it considerable leverage, which it has used to block India’s elevation, underscoring the competitive undercurrent in their bilateral relations.
Nevertheless, India remains committed to the idea of a multi-polar world where power is not concentrated in the hands of a few. Jaishankar has been an outspoken advocate for this at global forums, arguing that multi-polarity will ensure a more balanced and equitable world order. For India, achieving a multi-polar Asia is essential for securing its own strategic interests, especially as China continues to assert itself across South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
India has been grappling with China’s increasing influence in its immediate neighborhood. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to expand China’s economic and strategic reach, has made significant inroads in South Asia, particularly in countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan. This expansion has raised alarm in New Delhi, as it views these moves as encroachments on its sphere of influence.
However, Jaishankar has stressed that India should “welcome competition” and “have more confidence” in its ability to assert its influence in the region. India’s economic growth-currently the world’s fifth-largest economy with a GDP of $3.95 trillion-gives it a solid foundation to compete with China, especially as it is projected to become the third-largest economy by the end of this decade.
Despite the underlying tensions, both India and China have expressed a desire to improve relations. The foreign ministers of the two countries have met on several occasions, including at a recent meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Laos, where they discussed the importance of stabilizing ties. Jaishankar noted that, despite the “difficult history” between the two countries, India is committed to resolving outstanding issues and improving bilateral relations during Modi’s third term as Prime Minister.
The global context, too, is shifting in ways that could compel both countries to work together. Jaishankar pointed out that the world has been hit by “repeated shocks”-from the pandemic to conflicts and climate crises-that are accelerating global changes. In this environment, Asia, and particularly India and China, is positioned at the “cutting edge” of these transformations. Both countries will need to navigate these challenges carefully if they are to maintain stability in the region and beyond.
The relationship between India and China will be one of the defining features of Asia’s future. As both countries continue their parallel rises, their ability to manage competition and resolve disputes will have far-reaching implications, not just for the region but for the entire world. With India pushing for a multi-polar global order and China asserting its influence, the world is watching closely to see how these two giants shape the 21st century. The stakes are high, and the outcome of this delicate balancing act will resonate across continents and generations.
Renuka Patnaik, Special Contributors to Blitz is a researcher with an organization that monitors activities of terrorist and militancy groups in the world.
