Middle East on edge, mpox response, and 12 months of hell in Gaza: The Cheat Sheet
Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe.
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Middle East on precipice of regional war following epochal week
Events over the past week in the Middle East have been nothing short of seismic. On 27 September, Israel killed the long-time leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, in a massive aerial attack on the group’s central command bunker in the southern suburbs of Lebanon’s capital, Beirut. The assassination followed a series of serious blows to Hezbollah, including Israeli sabotage attacks and bombings targeting the group’s senior leadership and military capabilities. Then, on 1 October, the Israeli military launched what it called a “limited, localised” ground invasion of southern Lebanon. That same night, Iran launched a barrage of more than 180 missiles at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Nasrallah and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran’s capital Tehran in July. Israeli officials have said they are planning a significant attack on Iran in response. With that, the long-simmering conflict between Hezbollah and Israel along the Lebanon-Israel border appears to be spiralling into the all-out regional war many have feared. Israel has continued to pound Lebanon from the air, damaging over 3,100 buildings in the past two weeks. Israel’s attacks have also displaced over one million people, with more than 100,000 fleeing across the border to Syria. Nearly 2,000 people have been killed, already surpassing the death toll of the last war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. Among the dead are a growing number of healthcare workers, including at least 28 on-duty medics killed by Israeli strikes over a 24-hour period between 2 and 3 October.
One year of Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip
At the root of the escalation towards regional war is the failure – or refusal – to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. On 7 October last year, Hamas launched an unprecedented attack into Israel, killing 1,200 people – including many civilians – injuring thousands of others, and taking around 250 hostages. Israel’s response has been a year of total war in Gaza. Nearly 42,000 Palestinians in the enclave have been killed, almost 100,000 have been injured, and a further 10,000 are missing and presumed dead under the rubble of destroyed buildings, according to Gaza health authorities. Israeli bombing has laid waste to Gaza’s critical infrastructure, healthcare sector, and housing stock, and 90% of the population (some 1.9 million people) has been displaced, with people often forced to flee multiple times. A year of near-total siege has left virtually the entire population facing crisis levels of food insecurity. Even as the main focus of its military shifts towards Lebanon, Israel continues to bomb Gaza, conduct ground operations in the enclave, and pursue “total victory” against Hamas – a goal many experts warn is not possible. With people in Gaza living in unimaginable conditions and another winter closing in, there is no discernible end in sight. For a round-up of our reporting from the past year, read: One year of war in Gaza.
A snapshot of needs in East Africa
East Africa is one of the world’s worst humanitarian hotspots, according to OCHA, the UN’s aid coordination agency. Nearly 67 million people are in need of aid – more than 21% of the global humanitarian caseload. Fifty-five million people in the region are facing acute food shortages, with Sudan accounting for 26 million of that toll. Ethiopia is not far behind: 16 million people there are going hungry, while in South Sudan, roughly 70% of the population also struggles to find enough to eat. As ever, war is a major driver of the misery – Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan are all facing active conflicts. As a result of that violence – and climate-related shocks – more than 26% of the 75.9 million people globally that have been displaced locally are from the region. Those that can, cross borders: East Africa’s 5.4 million refugee population has increased more than fivefold in the last decade.
Rising floods kill hundreds in Nepal
Flooding in Nepal has led to at least 241 deaths as the country faces unprecedented monsoon rains that began in late September. A further 173 people have been injured. Much of the damage took place around the poorer neighbourhoods of the capital, Kathmandu. “I’ve never before seen flooding on this scale in Kathmandu,” said Arun Bhakta, a climate specialist at the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. But residents in more remote areas say they have struggled to receive proper assistance in time.
As mpox outbreak escalates, trust becomes more crucial
The mpox outbreak evolving in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and neighbouring countries is a global emergency, but the response goes beyond straightforward health and humanitarian scale-ups. As with other crises, building trust and listening to communities is crucial, warns a new security briefing aimed at NGOs from UK-based GISF. There were at least 6,700 confirmed mpox cases in 15 countries as of 29 September. The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and World Health Organization have launched a response plan, and big aid agencies are among those scaling up. But there is already deep “mistrust and scepticism”, social media monitoring suggests. This mirrors the dynamics around highly criticised responses to Ebola outbreaks in the past. “Responders failed to understand that Ebola was not a priority humanitarian need for affected populations. Many people were more concerned by regular violent attacks by armed groups and more prevalent diseases,” the GISF report cautions. “Organisations that changed tactics by listening to the priorities of communities and adapting their approach to meet these expectations were able to improve acceptance.”
UK pledges to give Chagos Islands to Mauritius
The United Kingdom pledged on 3 October to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, following years of negotiations. The islands currently make up the British Indian Ocean Territory, or BIOT, often described as the last British colony in Africa. Starting in late 2021, hundreds of Sri Lankan migrants and asylum seekers arrived on Diego Garcia by boat, many of them fleeing persecution at home. Around 60 remain on the island, housed and fed by the BIOT administration in an enclosed camp near a US-UK military base. Dozens have participated in hunger strikes, or attempted suicide to protest their alleged mistreatment by British authorities and security guards, from private security firm G4S, brought in to supervise them. In early October, a UK judge is expected to rule on whether the authorities are detaining the group illegally. For more on the plight of Sri Lankan asylum seekers on BIOT, read our coverage.
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In case you missed it
ARGENTINA: Poverty rates rose from 42% to 53% during the first six months of President Javier Milei’s mandate, new figures by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) showed. Since taking office, Milei has imposed stringent austerity measures to curb inflation, cutting subsidies and closing soup kitchens, among other measures. As poverty rises, the country's poorest neighbourhoods face a growing food emergency. For more, read how Argentina has become an emerging hunger hotspot, despite being a top food exporter.
CAMBODIA: The arrest of a prominent Cambodian journalist who exposed human trafficking behind online scam centres has raised concern. Mech Dara, who has won awards for his work on corruption and environmental issues, was arrested on 30 September and charged with incitement over several social media posts. In a statement, Human Rights Watch called the charges against Dara “bogus” and an “apparent reprisal” for his work. Amnesty International said the arrest was “the latest step in the new government’s campaign to erase press freedom”.
DENGUE: The World Health Organisation has launched a new plan to fight dengue fever and other diseases spread by the Aedes mosquito, such as the Zika virus. These illnesses are rising: Dengue cases have doubled each year since 2021, and the WHO predicts five billion people a year will be at risk of dengue by 2050. Climate change is a driving factor behind rising dengue cases. For more, read why Aedes mosquitos are looking forward to a warmer world.
GENDER: Plan International’s new State of the World's Girls report, a survey of youth in 10 conflict-affected countries, shows that 41% of the more than 10,000 interviewees reported no or very limited access to water, while 44% had very limited access to food, and 59% no or very limited access to electricity. Girls face greater challenges than boys in all these categories and 27% are at risk of sexual violence in everyday life. For more reporting on how women and girls experience crises differently, read our She Said series.
HAITI: Nearly half the population – 5.4 million people – now faces acute hunger, with at least 6,000 displaced Haitians starving, at risk of dying, and in severe acute malnutrition, the UN says. The World Food Programme says it’s “the worst hunger emergency in the western hemisphere”. Despite the crisis, the Dominican Republic announced that it would start deporting up to 10,000 Haitian migrants a week. For more on the country’s humanitarian catastrophe, read this intimate account of life in Haiti.
MIGRATION DEATHS: At least 45 people have died and 111 are missing after two shipwrecks on the often overlooked maritime migration route between the Horn of Africa and Yemen. Meanwhile, off the west coast of Africa, nine people died and at least 48 are missing after a boat carrying asylum seekers and migrants capsized en route to the Spanish Canary Islands.
PAKISTAN: The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party has accused local authorities in Punjab province of imposing curfews to keep party members from protesting against rising inflation, and from calling for the release of the party’s founder, former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Residents and party members in Punjab said provincial authorities invoked a criticised part of the criminal code that allows police to restrict activities.
REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS: There’s a growing global health crisis of preventable deaths from unsafe abortions, MSI, a reproductive health NGO, warns in a new report. One estimate suggests 22,800 people die from unsafe abortions yearly. More abortion care is needed in humanitarian settings, MSI says, where sexual violence risk rises and contraception access is limited.
SUDAN: The Sudanese army is allegedly carrying out summary executions as it tries to claw back territory in Khartoum against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. The UN’s human rights office said it has received reports indicating that up to 70 young men were killed in the past few days by the army and aligned groups.
UKRAINE: The Russian military took control of the strategic town of Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine after Ukrainian soldiers withdrew from the city on 2 October. Ukraine had battled for two years to hold onto the town after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. The fall of the town is emblematic of the myriad challenges Ukraine is facing in its campaign to fend off Russia in the east, according to analysts.
UK ABUSE PROBE: The UK’s Ministry of Defence is launching an investigation into mounting allegations against British troops stationed in Kenya, the most notorious of which is the 2012 murder of local woman Agnes Wanjiru. No one has been prosecuted, despite the identity of the alleged killer being known to authorities. British troops face numerous accusations of sexual violence and exploitation, and victims’ groups accuse the UK government of a poor response.
UNITED STATES: At least 215 people have died from damage caused by Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in Florida on 26 September. Most of the deaths were in North Carolina, where heavy rain triggered fast-moving floods and landslides that destroyed entire communities. Hundreds remain missing. The head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency said climate change exacerbated the storm’s destructive force.
Weekend Read
"How can there be two extremes in the world: humane and inhumane?"
Gaza-based writer Nour ElAssy reflects on how small moments of human kindness have helped to preserve humanity through 12 months of hell.
And finally…
How do you acknowledge peace when war rages?
This year’s Nobel Peace Prize is set to be awarded on 11 October. At a time when Israel’s assault on Gaza threatens to widen – along with enduring conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, and beyond – some speculate that the five-person prize committee may put the spotlight on humanitarians. The head of the Peace Research Institute Oslo has his personal list, which includes Sudan’s volunteer emergency response rooms, the UN’s embattled agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, and the International Court of Justice. Iranian rights activist Narges Mohammadi was awarded last year’s prize. Humanitarian agencies World Food Programme and Médecins Sans Frontières have been honoured in the past. Some winners, especially politicians, haven’t held up so well – their legacies marred by rights abuses, enduring wars, and new conflicts. Here’s another idea: No one wins. “Maybe this is the year in which the Nobel Peace Prize committee should simply withhold the prize and focus attention on the fact that this is a warring planet,” said Dan Smith, head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
