Maldives president Muizzu visits India to repair relations

Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu was welcomed with a red-carpet reception on his first state visit to India on October 7, marking a significant step in mending the frayed ties between the two South Asian nations. Muizzu, a pro-China leader who took office a year ago, had campaigned on a platform of reducing India’s military footprint in the strategically located archipelago. His visit to New Delhi, delayed compared to the usual rapid invitations extended to South Asian leaders, underscores the delicate balance both nations are navigating in their bilateral relationship.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Droupadi Murmu personally greeted Muizzu with an honor guard at the presidential palace, a symbol of the importance India places on its relationship with the Maldives. Muizzu’s state visit comes as India seeks to solidify its influence in the Indian Ocean region, where China has been making strategic inroads, much to India’s discomfort.

The Maldives’ geopolitical significance cannot be overstated. Nestled along global east-west shipping lanes, the archipelago’s 1,192 coral islands stretch around 800 kilometers (500 miles) across the equator, making it a valuable piece of real estate for any nation looking to secure a foothold in the Indian Ocean. Both India and China have significant economic interests in the Maldives, and the growing rivalry between these two major powers has left the small island nation in a delicate position.

India, which has long considered the Maldives to be within its sphere of influence, has grown increasingly concerned about China’s rising presence in the region. China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” has seen billions of dollars invested in infrastructure projects across South Asia, including the Maldives. As a result, India’s engagement with the Maldives has often been framed as a counterweight to China’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean.

During his campaign, Muizzu had voiced strong anti-Indian rhetoric, reflecting widespread sentiment among Maldivians who view the presence of Indian troops as an infringement on their sovereignty. A key promise Muizzu made was to expel Indian military personnel from the islands. At the time, there were 78 Indian soldiers stationed in the Maldives to operate two helicopters and a fixed-wing plane used for search and rescue operations, among other activities. True to his word, Muizzu set a deadline for their withdrawal, which India complied with by May 2024. However, the helicopters and plane remain in the Maldives, operated by a civilian Indian crew-a subtle compromise that reflects the continued complexity of the Maldives-India relationship.

In an interview published in the Times of India, Muizzu emphasized that his decision to reduce India’s military presence was based on the will of the Maldivian people. “What I did is what the people of Maldives asked from me,” Muizzu said, while also reassuring that the Maldives’ actions would never compromise India’s security. He stressed that while the Maldives continues to enhance cooperation with other countries, including China, it remains committed to ensuring the stability of the region.

Beyond military concerns, economic ties between the Maldives and both India and China are a critical part of the equation. The Maldives’ debt burden has reached alarming levels, with foreign debt totaling $3.37 billion in the first quarter of 2024, equating to around 45 percent of the country’s GDP. Much of this debt is owed to China, which has financed various infrastructure projects across the archipelago.

India has also played a significant role in the Maldives’ economic development, extending lines of credit to support critical infrastructure projects. Muizzu acknowledged the importance of India’s financial assistance during his visit, describing a “line of credit arrangement” with New Delhi as a “positive step” toward addressing the Maldives’ economic challenges.

For its part, India remains cautious about the Maldives’ growing economic dependence on China. The fear is that China’s loans could be part of a broader “debt-trap diplomacy” strategy, whereby countries become so indebted to Beijing that they are forced to cede strategic assets. Sri Lanka, the Maldives’ neighbor to the north, has already fallen into this trap, leasing its Hambantota Port to a Chinese company for 99 years after it was unable to repay Chinese loans.

Since coming to power, Muizzu has taken a more pragmatic approach, toning down his anti-India rhetoric and making it clear that he does not intend to replace Indian military personnel with Chinese troops. “Maldives would never do anything that undermines the security of India,” Muizzu emphasized. His state visit to India reflects a willingness to rebuild the historic ties between the two countries while balancing his administration’s closer ties with China.

In fact, Muizzu has gone out of his way to highlight the deep cultural and historical connections between the Maldives and India. “This historic relationship is intertwined like the roots of a tree, built on centuries of exchanges and values shared,” he said, underscoring the long-standing links between the two nations. Muizzu’s comments seem aimed at reassuring India that, while his administration may have strong ties with China, it remains committed to preserving regional balance and stability.

India, in turn, has been keen to foster goodwill with the new Maldivian government. Prime Minister Modi invited Muizzu to New Delhi for his inauguration in June, following Modi’s victory in a third consecutive election. India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar also visited the Maldivian capital, Male, in August, in a bid to maintain strong diplomatic ties despite the shift in Maldivian leadership.

As Muizzu’s administration continues to navigate the challenges of managing relations with both India and China, his state visit to India signals a desire to keep diplomatic channels open and maintain a balanced approach to foreign policy. For India, the visit provides an opportunity to reaffirm its influence in the Indian Ocean while continuing to monitor China’s growing presence.

The road ahead will require careful diplomacy on both sides. The Maldives is likely to continue relying on both India and China for economic and strategic support, but Muizzu’s reassurances during his state visit suggest that the Maldives is committed to maintaining a peaceful and stable Indian Ocean region, where neither India’s security nor China’s economic interests are unduly threatened.

In this delicate dance between two major powers, the Maldives must skillfully balance its partnerships to ensure its sovereignty and economic well-being, while India and China vie for influence over this strategically located island nation.