Digital Partisans: Dissecting Facebook Sentiment Towards Wickremesinghe, Premadasa and Dissanayake

Photo courtesy of Brandstory Communications

Last month I studied over 4,000 tweets linked to the three main presidential candidates Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW), Sajith Premedasa (SP) and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) in order to study how they presented themselves and how a wider public saw them. I ended by noting, “What’s “real” and “authentic” in politics is often manufactured. Today’s election campaigns are highly sophisticated and feature dark arts that instrumentalise our fears, anxieties and aspirations. To know this is to also realise that all election campaigns manipulate their audiences. This is, after all, propaganda’s raison d’être. The RW, SP and AKD one consumes in the media are fictional constructs intended to serve partisan ends. An informed citizenry is keenly aware of this and how election campaigns are inherently manipulative.”

I wanted to revisit the political discourse around these three individuals after the nominations. The discourse on Facebook around politics has been, for well over a decade, and especially after 2022’s aragalaya, by order of magnitude greater than what’s present on Twitter. A fundamental mistake made by many is to simplistically project exchanges and discourse on Twitter as representative of public sentiment in Sri Lanka. While it certainly reflects a part of society, Facebook’s approximately eight and a half million users in the country post far more content and commentary at any given time and on any given issue or politician.

Consequently, commentary on Facebook is a better capture of public sentiment in Sri Lanka and the reception of, in this case, presentations made by three leading presidential candidates (one of whom is the incumbent president). The ill-advised, untimely, and for researchers, devastating sunset of Facebook’s CrowdTangle tool means that computational propaganda and each candidate’s swarms of proxy accounts posting commentary and content in significant volumes is now near impossible to study. Knowing that public sentiments are mutable, and also malleable especially around elections, each candidate will increasingly craft emotive content designed to influence responses, attitudes, perceptions and, ultimately, voting behaviours. Terrible media guidelines issued by the Elections Commission only guarantee that digital propaganda, including generative AI based content and commentary will increase, strategically aimed at drowning out, decrying and often (sadly) denigrating each candidate’s opposition. Propaganda can be studied as a pitched battle of hyper-partisan narratives and how strategically crafted stories about Sri Lanka’s past, present and future shapes public perceptions in a manner that inform electoral outcomes. How this all plays out is important to track to extent possible, given centrality to electoral integrity, and the fuller  grasp of country’s democratic potential.

Although nowhere near as powerful as CrowdTangle, I used Meta’s new Meta Content Library (MCL) tool to capture the three most popular posts on the official Facebook accounts of RW, SP and AKD in the past 30 days. Given time and resource limitations, it was impossible to capture the entire discourse. For the purposes of this article, studied a total of 1,500 comments against RW, the same number against SP and 1,280 against AKD. Nearly all the comments across all three accounts and the nine posts studied were in Sinhala or transliterated Sinhala (i.e., Sinhala written with English letters).

As with the previous Twitter study all the Sinhala (and Tamil) comments were machine translated to English before analysis. I only studied the written commentary and not content featured on any links in them (e.g., to articles or press releases). I also didn’t study embedded audio/visual media like memes, photos, audio and video.

Ranil Wickremesinghe (1,500 comments)

Positive Perceptions: Ranil Wickremesinghe is widely seen as an experienced and capable leader who saved Sri Lanka from 2022’s economic catastrophe and collapse. Many commenters praise him for taking charge of the country during its worst economic crisis in 2022 when others were unwilling to do so. RW is credited with stabilising the economy, ending fuel queues and bringing some semblance of normalcy within a short period of about two years. Supporters view him as a visionary leader with a clear plan for Sri Lanka’s development. They appreciate his focus on technology, education reforms, and youth empowerment. His international connections and diplomacy skills are seen as crucial assets for attracting foreign investments and support. Many believe he is the only leader capable of steering Sri Lanka towards prosperity given his knowledge, experience and global recognition. Some see him as a leader who puts the country first, above party politics. His efforts to engage with the public through initiatives like the Q&A sessions on Facebook are appreciated as signs of a leader who listens to people’s concerns.

Negative Perceptions: Critics view Wickremesinghe as part of the old political establishment responsible for Sri Lanka’s problems. Some accuse him of protecting corrupt politicians and failing to act against those involved in financial scandals, particularly the Central Bank bond scam. There are allegations of him being too close to the Rajapaksa family, whom many blame for the country’s economic woes. A segment of commenters see him as an unelected president who came to power through parliamentary manoeuvring rather than popular mandate. His age is sometimes cited as a concern, with some suggesting it’s time for him to retire and make way for younger leadership. Some also criticise his economic policies as being too neo-liberal or favouring the wealthy at the expense of the poor. There are concerns about privatisation of state assets and high taxes. A few commenters express scepticism about the actual extent of economic recovery under his leadership.

Nuanced/mixed perceptions: While opinions are largely polarised in the 1,500 comments studied, some offer a more nuanced view. These comments acknowledge RW’s role in stabilising the economy but express reservations about long term viability of him as executive president. Others, while appreciating his efforts since 2022, call for more action on issues like corruption, cost of living and job creation for youth. There’s a sense among some that despite disagreements with his politics or past actions, RW might be the most suitable leader for Sri Lanka’s current situation, especially given the lack of viable alternatives.

Projection of SP/AKD: There’s almost no commentary on SP. There were two comments referring to AKD. One suggested that he had gone into hiding when the country faced its most difficult period (alluding to 2022 and aftermath). Another made a derogatory comparison with RW, noting that despite being 20 years younger, AKD had a lower level of intelligence.

Overarching observations on discourse: There’s a noticeable presence of comments focusing on specific policy areas or issues. For instance, some commenters ask about plans for export-import policies, senior citizens’ fixed deposit interests and the permanent employment of dengue assistants. This indicates that while many comments are broad, partisan and populist expressions of support or criticism, there’s also a segment of those who follow RW’s Facebook account seeking detailed policy information. This is likely because of the nature of the Facebook Q&A sessions most of the comments were harvested from and anchored to. There were also references to past promises and policies such as mentions of the Volkswagen factory project or the Central Bank bond scam, indicating some continue to perceive RW for what he did (or didn’t do) prior to 2022.

Most used emojis: The red heart (❤️) emoji is predominantly used to express strong support, admiration or affection for Ranil Wickremesinghe. It often appears at the end of comments praising his leadership or expressing hope for his success. For example, comments like “රනිල් තමයි එකම විසදුම ❤️” (Ranil is the only solution ❤️) or “ජනතාව ගැන සිතන එකම නායකයා රනිල්💪🖤” (Ranil is the only leader who thinks about the people 💪🖤) The heart emoji was also frequently used in combination with other emojis or text to amplify positive sentiments. For instance, “අනාගත බලාපොරොත්තුව RW 🌷🌷🌷” (Future hope is RW 🌷🌷🌷) Multiple heart emojis were used in succession to emphasise the strength of support/love/adulation/veneration, such as “Ape janapathi❤❤❤” (Our President ❤❤❤). While the red heart was the most common, other colour variations of the heart emoji (like 🖤 or 💚) were also used. The second most frequently used emoji was the thumbs up (👍), used to signify approval or agreement with RW’s decisions, beliefs, promises, actions or statements. Other common emojis included the Sri Lankan flag (🇱🇰), and the flexed bicep (💪), used to convey strength or power in the context of RW’s leadership.

Sajith Premadasa (1,500 comments)

Positive perceptions: Many commenters express strong support for SP, viewing him as the next president of Sri Lanka. There is a prevalent sentiment that his victory is assured, with numerous comments referring to him as the “definite president” (නිශ්චිතජනාධිපති and similar expressions in Sinhala). Premadasa is perceived by his supporters as a leader who understands the struggles of the common people, particularly the poor. Comments refer to him as “the friend of the poor” and someone who will work for the betterment of the underprivileged. There’s a sense of hope and expectation associated with Premadasa. Many commenters believe that he will bring positive change to the country, with some expressing that he is the leader who can save Sri Lanka from its post-2022 problems. Like what was discovered in the Twitter discourse, SP is seen by some as a continuation of his father’s legacy. Comments mentioning his father suggest that some voters associate SP with the perceived positive aspects of his father’s presidential tenure, expecting similar leadership qualities in the son.

Negative perceptions: Despite the positive comments, there is also a significant undercurrent of scepticism, pushback and criticism of SP. Some view SP as part of the established political elite that has failed Sri Lanka repeatedly. They express doubt about his ability to bring genuine change, seeing him as a continuation of problematic, corrupt and morally bankrupt political dynasties. Relatedly, there are also concerns about the company he keeps politically and the partners of the SJB. Some commenters criticise the presence of politicians perceived as corrupt or problematic in his coalition, suggesting that SP might not represent the clean break from past political practices that voters desire. There are accusations of vote-buying, and populist tactics. Some comments suggest that the large crowds at his rallies are due to free transportation and food provided rather than genuine support.

Nuanced/mixed perceptions: Some comments reflect a wait-and-see attitude, neither enthusiastically supporting nor outright rejecting Premadasa. These accounts seem to be reserving judgment, possibly waiting for more concrete policy proposals (i.e., his manifesto) or actions.

Projection of RW/AKD: There’s almost no mention of AKD, and RW in the comments studied. One comment noted “”2020 සජබ පාර්ලිමේන්තු ලිස්ට් එකේ හිටපු 50 කට වැඩිය පිරිසක් අද ඉන්නෙ ජනාධිපති රනිල් ලග” (“More than 50 people who were on the SJB parliamentary list in 2020 are now with President Ranil.”), and another noted “රනිල්ට ජය නියතයි.” (“Victory is certain/assured for Ranil.”) It’s impossible to extrapolate from these two, and just a few other comments any broader sentiment against RW or AKD from those who follow SP on Facebook. This tracks with RW’s comments as well, in that those who follow their preferred political personality don’t seem to – at least over respective official accounts – engage with policies of, or even acknowledge the candidacy of rivals.

Overarching observations on discourse: A notable theme in some comments is the concern for the future of youth. Some commenters express worry about the country their children will inherit, suggesting a deep-seated anxiety about long term prospects. This concern transcends immediate political allegiances and points to a broader desire for substantial, long term solutions to the country’s problems. There are comments from individuals who appear to be part of the Sri Lankan diaspora. These commenters often express a mix of concern for their homeland and criticism of the political system. Some mention their intention to return to Sri Lanka to vote. The involvement of former cricketers in politics, particularly the mention of Tillakaratne Dilshan joining Premadasa’s party, draws mixed reactions. While some view it positively, others express disappointment that respected sports figures are entering what they perceive as a corrupt political arena.

Most used emojis: The telephone (☎️) is the most used emoji, which is unsurprising given that it’s the SJB’s party symbol. The emoji is often used in conjunction with phrases like “ජය වේවා!” (May you be victorious!) or “දිනන සජිත්” (Sajith the winner), suggesting that supporters view it as a symbol of electoral success. Additionally, the heart (❤️) and the Sri Lankan flag (🇱🇰) emojis are also used heavily.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake (1,280 comments)

Positive perceptions: AKD is widely seen as an honest, principled leader who offers hope for positive change. Many commenters express strong support and enthusiasm for AKD and the National People’s Power (NPP) party, viewing them as a clean alternative to corrupt established parties. There’s a prevailing sentiment that AKD represents a new kind of politics focused on meritocracy, good governance and economic development. Many express confidence in AKD’s ability to tackle corruption, improve public services, and create a more just society. His promises to change the “rotten system” resonate strongly with those frustrated with traditional politics. Relatedly, there’s significant hope that an AKD presidency would mark a new era, breaking from decades of mismanagement by political dynasties. Supporters see him as representing the interests of ordinary people rather than (political) elites.

Negative perceptions: Critics view AKD’s economic policies as unrealistic or potentially harmful. Some worry that his left wing background could lead to policies that deter foreign investment or exacerbate economic problems. There are accusations that AKD is hypocritical with some commenters claiming he benefits from the same political system he criticises. Some see AKD as inexperienced in governance, pointing out that he has never held executive office. They question whether he has the practical skills to run the country effectively. Critics also argue that AKD’s party benefits from trade union support in the public sector, questioning how this would affect his ability to reform inefficient state institutions.

Nuanced/mixed perceptions: Some commenters, while generally positive towards AKD, express scepticism about whether he can deliver on all his promises. They worry about the challenges of implementing reforms in the face of entrenched interests and the capture of the political class and culture by traditional elites. There are questions about AKD’s ability to work with international partners and manage complex economic issues, given his left-leaning background. Some wonder if he has the diplomatic skills and economic expertise to navigate the debt crisis and relationships with major powers. A few express concern about AKD’s past association with the JVP’s militant phase in the late-1980s, although many see this as no longer relevant.

Projection of RW/SP: SP is mentioned only in passing and generally in a negative context. He is grouped with other established political figures who are seen as part of the old system that many commenters want to change. There’s a sense that Premadasa represents continuity with past policies rather than the change that supporters of AKD are seeking. RW, like SP, is also generally portrayed in a negative light, often being lumped together with other established politicians who are seen as part of longstanding political problems. He is viewed as a representative of the old political order that many commenters are eager to move away from. One commenter pointedly mentions that Wickremesinghe has been in politics for 47 years and has been prime minister six times, yet the country has ended up bankrupt. This comment reflects a broader sentiment that Wickremesinghe has had ample opportunity to improve the country but has failed to do so. Unsurprisingly, given the NPP’s core constituency, and political ideology, some suggest that RW’s policies favour international interests or a wealthy elite rather than addressing the needs of the majority. RW’s approach to issues like IMF loans and economic reforms appears to be viewed with suspicion, although there’s no clear alternative or critique provided.

Overarching observations on discourse: Phrases like “May the motherland be victorious” (“මව්බිමට ජයවේවා”)and invocations of blessings (“ත්‍රිවිධ රත්නයේ ආශිර්වාදය” and allied commentary) suggest a blending of political support with religious and nationalistic sentiments. This fusion of politics, patriotism and Buddhist faith is a significant aspect of discourse in commentary associated with AKD (much more so than RW, and SP). There’s a strong emphasis on youth support for AKD and the NPP. Many commenters identify themselves as young voters or refer to the younger generation’s desire for change. This suggests that AKD is perceived as appealing particularly to younger demographics who are seeking a break from traditional (i.e. pre-aragalaya) politics. This can also be read as, amongst those who support him, AKD’s projection as the custodian of aragalaya’s clarion call for “system change”. Interestingly, there are numerous comments from Sri Lankans living abroad or mentioning family members overseas, indicating significant diaspora interest in AKD’s messaging, which is unsurprising given his trips just this year to Canada, the UK, Japan, Australia and elsewhere. There’s a noticeable lack of policy-specific discussions. While there’s abundant enthusiasm for AKD, there are few comments delving into the details of his proposed policies or how he intends to implement changes. The support seems largely based on his perceived character and general promises of change rather than specific policy proposals.

Most used emojis:  The red heart emoji (❤️) appears far more often than any other emoji in the comments. It is used primarily to express strong support, admiration and affection for Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and his party. Of the 436 emojis featured in the comments, the red heart is featured 251 times (nearly 58%). The prevalence of the red heart emoji can also be read as an indication of the emotional nature of the support for AKD and his party. Many supporters seem to feel a strong personal connection to AKD (linked to my earlier article’s capture of parasocial relationships), viewing his candidacy not just as a political choice but as an individual they seem to genuinely love and are passionate about. Conversely, this also helps explain the lack of any discernible interest in, and conversation around clear, coherent policies (although this may change after AKD, and the other two release their manifestos). The red heart is also often used with the Sri Lankan flag 🇱🇰 or raised fist ✊, creating emoji combinations that signify love for country, and support for AKD’s political movement/candidacy. The compass (🧭) is also used, given that it is AKD’s party symbol (මාලිමාව).

Why does perceptions mapping matter?

In my previous article I noted “Voting is about personality and less about policy. Propaganda fuels this. Campaigns are not unlike reality TV shows where we all root for someone based on how they are presented with no idea whatsoever as to who they really are. To forget this is to allow self-serving presentations determine how we see critical issues and what each candidate says about us, our past, present and future.” The hyper-partisan commentary SP, AKD and RW respectively generate in response to their propaganda are echo chambers which in turn reflect affective polarisation of the voting base. With elections in Sri Lanka, over many decades, presented as zero sum outcomes, each candidate seeks to present a rival’s win as devastating for country. Social media echo chambers accentuate this fear-mongering and risk demonising opposing candidates.

With around 200,000 first time voters, and one million new voters, social media will play an unprecedented role in campaign propaganda, especially after the shift in political commentary to social media vectors during the aragalaya (when newspapers ran out of newsprint and there was no electricity to watch terrestrial TV). The enduring impact of that shift to digital vectors for political information persists and is also why there’s already a lot of spending on social media placement, YouTube interstitials and online ads.

Mapping how each candidate is perceived by their core fan base on social media as well as how rivals are projected helps determine how a broader constituency would appreciate victory or loss in September’s presidential election. Candidates may choose to whip up antipathy which risks rapid, significant, and enduring amplification by partisans. The fear is always that emotions online spill over offline and in ways that can’t be accurately determined as advance projections especially given the tattered social cohesion in Sri Lanka.

This  partial capture of partisan Facebook commentary, building on the earlier study of Twitter discourse, presented a snapshot of how contemporary political discourse is constructed across just the official Facebook accounts of RW, SP and AKD. One can extrapolate from this how truly dynamic and voluminous this discourse is when mapped across the thousands of pages and accounts on Facebook alone (leave aside other social media platforms) pegged to candidates, in addition to the commentary generated by mainstream, civic media, civil society and election watchdog accounts. It’s a fascinating world to dive into. The study of this is central to a fuller appreciation of how elections in Sri Lanka are inextricably entwined with digital propaganda that’s often extremely problematic and in turn recommends more robust oversight of campaign strategies, spending and output.