Education as the Engine of Antifragile Societies
Photo courtesy of ADB
In 1833 when the Colebrooke-Cameron reforms introduced constitutional governance to Ceylon, they inadvertently triggered a profound social transformation. While governance remained under a powerful governor appointed by the British Crown, it created something revolutionary: the first pathways for people to transcend the rigid caste hierarchies that had defined social possibilities for millennia.
For the first time, education and merit could elevate individuals beyond the circumstances of their birth. This opportunity did not just change individual lives; it fundamentally shifted cultural values across the island. Education transformed from a privilege of the elite into the highest aspiration of families seeking to secure better futures for their children. The constitutional framework that eventually evolved into full democracy succeeded not merely because of institutional design but because it aligned with this deeper cultural revolution that had already placed learning and human development at the centre of social advancement.
This remarkable transformation illustrates a profound truth that most contemporary discussions about national development miss entirely. The basis of political power is not winning elections or accumulating capital; it is the ability to guide cultural and technological change in ways that create lasting institutional strength. Countries that understand this distinction consistently outperform those that chase the flashier metrics of startup unicorns or political theatre.
As we face an unprecedented convergence of global disruptions, the question is not whether transformation is coming. The question is whether societies will build antifragile systems that grow stronger from disruption or fragile ones that shatter under pressure. The evidence points to a nearly two century old realisation: education systems, not startup ecosystems or political movements, serve as the most powerful and sustainable agents of social transformation.
Understanding true political power
The railway that first connected Colombo to Ambepussa in 1858 did not just move people faster; it fundamentally altered what Sri Lankans could imagine about their country. Similarly, when mobile banking leapfrogged traditional financial infrastructure across Kenya, it did not merely provide convenience but reshaped social relationships and economic possibilities across rural communities. These examples reveal how genuine political power operates – not through coercion or manipulation but through expanding the realm of what societies consider possible and desirable. The most sophisticated leaders understand that lasting influence comes from shaping the cultural and technological foundations that determine what becomes politically feasible over decades, not election cycles.
Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore exemplifies this approach through what he called “cultural engineering”. He systematically used language policy, educational curricula and media frameworks to create shared identity across ethnic divisions. This contrasts starkly with countries that mistake political theatre for political power. The US, despite its technological dynamism, increasingly demonstrates how societies focused on startup mythology and billionaire worship can create profound cultural polarization. When a culture celebrates individual wealth accumulation over collective capability building, when it treats complex social problems as technological puzzles solvable by entrepreneurial genius, it breeds the very inequalities and resentments that threaten democratic institutions.
Its current political volatility directly correlates with four decades of rising inequality driven by technology sector wealth concentration. The same period that produced Silicon Valley’s greatest innovations also produced the greatest wealth disparities since the 1920s, urban-rural cultural divides and political dysfunction that makes long term planning nearly impossible. This is not coincidence but the predictable result of organizing society around narrow technological excellence while neglecting broader human development.
The engine of transformation
While venture capitalists and political commentators debate which technological disruptions or electoral strategies will determine national futures, the most compelling evidence points elsewhere entirely. Countries that invest systematically in educational excellence consistently outperform those that rely on entrepreneurial dynamism or political charisma. For example, Finland’s comprehensive school reforms have created not just academic excellence but the world’s most equitable society. These transformations required decades but have produced resilient, broad based development that strengthened during global crises rather than fragmenting.
The difference between countries like Finland and others that bet heavily on startup ecosystems lies in education’s unique properties as a meta industry – a sector that strengthens all other sectors while building the adaptive capacity societies need for uncertain futures. Unlike the winner take all dynamics of startup ecosystems or the zero sum competition of electoral politics, educational investment creates distributed human capital that benefits entire societies while generating optionality for responding to unpredictable changes.
Modern education systems possess transformational power that pre-colonial societies lacked – the ability to diffuse ideas and technological literacy both uniformly and systematically across entire populations. When the ancient irrigation systems of Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa required coordination across thousands of people, that coordination happened through traditional hierarchies, religious authority and localized knowledge that was transmitted down generations. Changes occurred slowly, organically and often unevenly.
Today’s education systems can implement new curricula, teaching methods or technological tools across millions of students simultaneously. This represents unprecedented power for social transformation but also unprecedented risk. The same systems that can rapidly upgrade national capabilities can be captured by narrow interests seeking to advance particular agendas at society’s expense.
The vulnerability of transformation
This systematic reach explains why education systems become prime targets for what economists call “elite capture” – when small groups hijack public institutions for private benefit. For example, Russia’s university system has generated billions in admission bribes while failing to educate students effectively for decades. The higher education system in Australia has become more important as a source of foreign revenue for the nation and a channel for permanent migration for foreign students, detracting them from being vibrant centres for innovation and national rejuvenation they have the potential to be. These examples are not merely about corruption of intentions or institutional goals. They illustrate how the very power that makes education transformational also makes it vulnerable. When education systems work well, they create broad based prosperity and social mobility. When they are captured, they become mechanisms for entrenching privilege while hollowing out the human capital foundation that societies need for adaptive capacity.
Similarly, the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence exposes how educational systems designed around memorization and standardized testing prepare students for jobs that may not exist while failing to develop the creative problem solving, ethical reasoning and collaborative capabilities that remain uniquely human. Education systems that cannot adapt to these changing demands become not just obsolete but counterproductive, creating graduates whose skills actively conflict with their societies’ needs.
Growing stronger through disruption
The solution requires understanding what makes systems antifragile, capable of growing stronger from stress rather than merely surviving it. In nature, forest ecosystems benefit from periodic fires that clear undergrowth and release nutrients for new growth. Immune systems develop strength through exposure to manageable challenges. Grasses grow healthier after regular mowing because it stimulates root development and eliminates weaker competitors.
Antifragile education systems exhibit comparable properties: they create adaptive human capital that can capitalize creatively on unforeseeable challenges, build social cohesion that enables collective action during crises, generate continuous innovation through diverse perspectives colliding productively and preserve valuable knowledge while adapting to changing circumstances.
But education systems can also become fragile through over optimization. Countries that design curricula around specific economic plans, standardize teaching methods too rigidly or concentrate resources among narrow elites risk creating brittle systems that break under pressure rather than adapting. The key lies in balancing structure with flexibility, excellence with accessibility and global integration with local relevance. This balance requires understanding which domains of social transformation benefit from ancient wisdom and institutional memory, and which require youthful innovation to displace outdated thinking.
Wisdom and innovation
Just as plants exhibit different growth patterns – woody trees adding new growth at their edges while grasses regenerate from their cores – societies need different approaches for different domains of development. Edge growth domains benefit from elder guidance and institutional memory. Constitutional frameworks, international relations and cultural preservation require the deep knowledge that comes from experiencing multiple cycles of challenge and adaptation. Accumulated wisdom and classical philosophy provide far better insights about institution building and managing change, including the volatility that comes from disruptive innovation. The ancient irrigation systems that sustained Sri Lankan civilization for over a millennium succeeded precisely because they combined cutting edge engineering with mature institutional frameworks for maintenance and renewal. The technological capabilities were impressive but the cultural frameworks of dana and shramadana that organized collective responsibility across generations made long term sustainability possible.
Core growth domains require youthful energy to challenge entrenched assumptions. Social and scientific research, concepts of fairness and justice, labor and employment structures, monetary systems, communication patterns, social engagement and emerging technologies all benefit from fresh perspectives that can imagine alternatives to existing arrangements. Young people, precisely because they have not yet invested decades in mastering current systems, can more easily recognize when those systems have become obsolete or counterproductive. They can ask fundamental questions that older, more experienced practitioners may have stopped asking: Why do we organize work this way? Why do we measure value this way? Why do we need banks to manage our money? Why do we communicate through these particular channels? The mobile banking revolution that transformed Kenya’s financial landscape succeeded because young entrepreneurs could imagine alternatives to the banking infrastructure that financial experts considered essential. They were not constrained by deep knowledge of why traditional banking evolved its particular forms; they simply focused on meeting user needs through available technology.
The art lies in recognizing which domain requires which approach. Societies that let youth displace institutional wisdom risk dangerous instability. Societies that let institutional inertia prevent innovation in technology or social organization risk stagnation and irrelevance.
The meta industry advantage
Education is a unique domain where intensive development never threatens regional or global powers in contrast to manufacturing, natural resources or military capabilities that can shift strategic balances. Education is a meta industry that strengthens all other industries while building capabilities that benefit humanity broadly. Small countries can develop world class educational systems without threatening larger neighbors. In fact, educational excellence tends to create beneficial spillovers through knowledge sharing, cultural exchange and collaborative innovation.
Moreover, education generates two types of valuable exports that other industries cannot match: enhanced human capital and pedagogical innovations. Countries with excellent education systems consistently produce graduates who contribute to global knowledge creation regardless of where they live and work. They also develop teaching methods, curricular approaches and institutional designs that other countries can adopt and adapt. For a small, strategically located country like Sri Lanka, this represents an enormous opportunity. Rather than competing with regional powers in technology, natural resources or strategic capabilities – domains where size and resource endowments create permanent disadvantages – Sri Lanka could develop comparative advantage in educational excellence that would strengthen rather than threaten regional relationships.
Building antifragile futures
The convergence of global disruptions creates unprecedented urgency for this understanding. COVID-19 revealed how fragility in educational systems propagates across all social systems. Countries with robust, equitable education systems adapted more successfully to remote learning, economic disruption and social isolation while those with fragmented, under resourced educational infrastructure experienced learning losses that may take generations to recover.
Artificial intelligence makes this even more critical. Educational systems designed around memorization and standardized testing prepare students for a world that no longer exists while failing to develop the distinctly human capabilities – creative problem solving, ethical reasoning, collaborative innovation and cultural sensitivity – that become more valuable as machines compete with humans for routine cognitive work.
Supply chain vulnerabilities exposed through recent global disruptions demonstrate the fragility of over specialized economic models. Countries that developed narrow competitive advantages in particular industries face existential threats when global conditions change. Educational systems that build broad adaptive capabilities provide insurance against such vulnerabilities by creating populations that can pivot toward new opportunities as circumstances require.
Religious and ethnic nationalism represents the antithesis of antifragile development. These ideologies create rigid identity structures that cannot adapt to demographic changes, global integration or technological transformation. They exclude portions of the population from full participation, reducing human capital utilization and creating internal tensions that weaken social cohesion during crises. The alternative requires embracing diversity as a source of strength rather than treating it as a problem to be managed. Educational systems that preserve and respect cultural distinctions while building shared civic identity, which maintain local relevance while enabling global engagement and honor traditional wisdom while encouraging innovation create the adaptive capacity that antifragile societies require.
The choice ahead
We return to where we began: understanding transformation in our current moment of profound global disruption. Today’s transformative technologies – artificial intelligence, biotechnology, renewable energy and digital connectivity – offer similar possibilities for societies with the wisdom to guide technological adoption through cultural preparation rather than allowing technological disruption to overwhelm cultural capacity.
The evidence is clear: countries that invest systematically in educational excellence, which build antifragile systems capable of growing stronger through disruption, which balance ancient institutional wisdom with youthful innovation, consistently outperform those that chase technological silver bullets or political quick fixes. We must recognize education as the foundation that makes everything else sustainable. Like the ancient irrigation systems that sustained Sri Lankan civilization through countless challenges by aligning technological capability with cultural wisdom, tomorrow’s successful societies will be those that understand education not as preparation for predetermined futures, but as cultivation of adaptive capacity for navigating uncertainty.
Unlike previous transformations that societies could observe and gradually join, today’s acceleration means that societies must choose quickly between building antifragile educational foundations or accepting fragile dependence on others’ innovations. The choice is not between tradition and modernity but between brittle systems that appear efficient until they break and antifragile systems that seem chaotic until they prove their strength in adversity. In an uncertain world where the only certainty is accelerating change, the societies that invest in adaptive human capabilities through excellent, equitable education will inherit the future. For Sri Lanka, as for all societies navigating this transformation, the question is not whether we have the resources for educational excellence. The question is whether we have the wisdom to recognize that we cannot afford anything less.
This article is the final instalment in a three part series exploring technology, culture, and social transformation. Read Part 2 here: https://groundviews.org/2025/09/29/how-nations-transform-through-strategic-learning/
