By: Staff Writer
September 06, Colombo (LNW): Sri Lanka’s agricultural export sector is increasingly caught between two forces beyond its immediate control: worsening weather conditions at home and geopolitical disruption abroad.
The emerging danger is particularly serious for tea, fruits and vegetables, which remain vulnerable to fluctuations in production as well as disruptions in international markets.
Export Development Board Chairman and CEO Mangala Wijesinghe has warned that the possible strengthening of El Niño-related dry weather could place additional pressure on Sri Lanka’s agricultural exports in the months ahead.
The warning exposes a deeper weakness in the country’s export structure. Several agricultural export categories are already contracting before the full impact of adverse weather conditions is felt.
Tea provides the clearest example. Export earnings during the first seven months of 2026 dropped 7.53% year-on-year to US$817.53 million. Bulk tea exports suffered a sharper 9.89% decline, while tea packets fell 7.01%.
At the same time, the tea industry is facing an increasingly uncertain international environment. Around 35% of Sri Lanka’s tea exports are sold to Middle Eastern markets, making the industry particularly vulnerable to the regional crisis.
Shipping disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty can therefore damage export performance even when domestic production remains intact. If dry conditions subsequently affect tea cultivation and other agricultural production, exporters could face a second and potentially more severe blow.
The deterioration is already visible in other agricultural categories. Vegetable exports fell 14.66% between January and July to US$17.64 million, while fruit and nut exports declined 12.28% to US$23.78 million.
The figures should raise questions about whether Sri Lanka’s export strategy is sufficiently resilient to simultaneous external shocks.
The EDB’s response is to accelerate diversification. Wijesinghe said the National Export Development Plan, launched in June, aims to generate annual export growth of around 8-10%.
The strategy covers eight priority areas: auto components, minerals-based industries, rubber-based industries, marine industries including boat and shipbuilding, spices and concentrates, digital products and services, electrical and electronic components, and processed food and beverages.
More than 35 Government institutions are involved in implementing the plan, with the EDB monitoring the performance of these priority sectors.
But diversification alone will not immediately solve the agricultural sector’s vulnerability. Developing new industries and penetrating new markets requires investment, technology, infrastructure and time.
The immediate challenge is therefore to prevent weather-related losses from becoming another drag on export earnings while traditional markets remain unstable.
Sri Lanka’s export sector has already demonstrated how quickly global events can disrupt established trade patterns. The combination of El Niño risks and Middle Eastern instability could now test whether the country has genuinely diversified its economic foundations—or merely spread existing products across a limited number of markets.
The warning from the EDB should therefore be treated as more than a weather forecast. It is a warning about the structural vulnerabilities of Sri Lanka’s export economy.
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