Forecasting the BNP’s Diplomacy in South Asia and Beyond

In the late 1970s, Bangladesh was still finding its footing after independence, and Ziaur Rahman, founder of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), envisioned a South Asia united through cooperation. He played a key role in proposing regional collaboration that eventually led to the creation of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). 

The idea took shape in the early 1980s, and SAARC was formally established on  December  8, 1985 in Dhaka, with leaders from Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives signing its charter.

Fast forward to 2026: the BNP, now led by Tarique Rahman, Ziaur Rahman’s son, has returned to power after years of political turbulence.

At his first post-election press conference at the InterContinental Hotel in Dhaka on February 14, Tarique Rahman emphasized that reviving SAARC would be a priority. “Bangladesh was the initiator of SAARC. So naturally, we would want SAARC to be revived. The BNP will take initiatives in this regard after forming the government. The government will speak to neighboring countries on the issue,” he said, flashing the victory sign.

Governments across South Asia and beyond are closely watching, aware that Bangladesh’s location, population, and role in regional trade and security make its political shifts significant for diplomacy.

Already, Tarique Rahman has made clear that Bangladesh’s interests would guide foreign policy. China, India, and the United States are recalibrating their approaches accordingly. 

The BNP’s return could also influence politics in Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The new government may reinvigorate Bangladesh’s role in SAARC and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), steering discussions toward economic integration and multilateral collaboration.

At the same time, the rise of Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) in opposition adds a layer of complexity. Historically associated with conservative Islamist positions, JI’s unprecedented prominence in Parliament will pose a new factor for the government’s foreign policy. 

During the campaign, voices within JI amplified rhetoric critical of India, reflecting long-standing skepticism among some voters. The new government will need to pursue constructive engagement on trade, border security, and regional cooperation, all while carefully managing domestic nationalist sentiments.

India was among the first to respond to Bangladesh’s election results. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee extended congratulations, signaling a desire for stability and continued economic cooperation with Dhaka. 

Just before Bangladesh’s election, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attended the funeral of former Prime Minister and BNP leader Begum Khaleda Zia and conveyed condolences to Tarique Rahman, Zia’s son. That signaled India’s intent to reset ties with the BNP and eventually Bangladesh’s new government. 

Pakistan has also engaged quickly. Both Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari congratulated Tarique Rahman, emphasizing cooperation in trade, defense, and culture. Recent diplomatic moves, including resumed direct flights and ministerial visits, indicate a shared interest in expanding engagement across multiple sectors.

From Ziaur Rahman’s vision for regional cooperation to Tarique Rahman’s electoral victory and commitment to reviving SAARC, Bangladesh’s 2026 election marks a key moment for South Asian diplomacy, highlighting the interplay between domestic politics, historical initiatives, and regional strategic priorities.

In India, hopes are particularly high for a change to the extreme tensions that marked ties under the interim government. 

“What we are seeing now are early signs of a reset. I think the relationship will be good,” said Sreeradha Dutta, a professor of international affairs at the OP Jindal Global University and a non-resident senior fellow with the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore. “You can see that invitations are being extended and delegations are also coming. I believe both sides will try to make a new effort. What happened over the last 18 months can be set aside, and now there is an opportunity to start afresh.”

Dutta acknowledged that “everything may not change overnight,” but she noted there is a certain amount of path dependency built up over the years. “The infrastructure and cross-border facilities that have been developed over so many years cannot simply be left unused – they need to be utilized. This will benefit people on both sides. Although Bangladesh may have borne more of the cost, I think these issues will be discussed gradually and solutions will emerge,” she told The Diplomat.

“The Indian foreign minister visited in December – those were very positive signals from India’s side. They are preparing to work with a BNP government – they have already given that signal,” Dutta continued. “Altogether, it seems that India is willing, and the BNP is also trying to create a positive environment.”

However, she cautioned against expecting immediate breakthroughs on sensitive issues such as water-sharing. “There will eventually be discussions on matters like the Ganga Water Treaty, but it would be premature to focus on them now. The immediate priority is political normalization. Let the new Cabinet take shape, let dialogue resume, and then the more complex issues will follow. The important point is that the process has begun.”

Resurrecting SAARC will be a key test for Bangladesh’s regional diplomacy. The grouping has been moribund for a decade. After the 2016 Uri attack, India orchestrated a boycott of the summit planned for that year in Islamabad. There has not been a SAARC summit since.

“The revival of SAARC depends on India. If India wants it, it will happen; if India does not want it, it will not happen. India-Pakistan relations are the main obstacle,” said Mirza M. Hassan, Ph.D., an adviser at the Governance and Politics cluster, BRAC Institute of Governance and Development. 

“The BNP will likely try to maintain relations with India, China, Pakistan, and the United States,” he predicted. “However, the recent trade agreement with the United States should be canceled; otherwise, relations with China may be damaged.”

The interim government had negotiated a trade deal with the United States, reducing tariffs on Bangladeshi exports to 19 percent and granting duty-free access for certain garments and textiles made from U.S. cotton. The agreement also opens avenues for Bangladesh to import U.S. energy and aircraft, including plans for Bangladesh to purchase 25 Boeing planes and energy products valued at an estimated $15 billion over the next 15 years. With the United States absorbing nearly $9-10 billion of Bangladesh’s $55 billion annual exports, this deal is a major step toward boosting export competitiveness and reducing the trade deficit. 

However, the agreement has drawn criticism from economists, industry leaders, and policy observers. Critics say the deal was rushed through by an interim government days before national elections without sufficient public or parliamentary debate, raising concerns about transparency and democratic legitimacy. Some analysts describe the pact as unequal or potentially undermining Bangladesh’s economic autonomy, noting that the tariff reduction itself is marginal and tied to broader commitments that could lock in U.S. technical standards and constrain future trade flexibility. 

This has sparked worries, as alluded to by Hassan, that the Bangladesh-U.S. trade deal is tantamount to choosing a side in the China-U.S. rivalry.

Dr. Selim Raihan, professor at the Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, and executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), stressed the importance of balance. “During the interim period, several foreign deals, including a trade agreement with the U.S., were signed without proper consultation with stakeholders,” he told The Diplomat. “Bangladesh needs to carefully manage relationships with India, China, and other partners.”

Hassan too stressed that “Bangladesh is now in a complex geopolitical reality. The United States is pursuing an imperialistic policy. How Bangladesh will manage this pressure – that will be seen in the future.”