Friend or foe? Southeast Asia braces for Trump 2.0

BANGKOK – As Southeast Asian nations grapple with US President-elect Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and trade war threats, the incoming leader’s second tour will put the region’s trade-dependent nations on edge and its authoritarian regimes at ease.

“In his first term, he [Trump] did not exhibit interest in the promotion of democracy or human rights,” Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a former Thai foreign minister and trade representative, said in an interview. “This tendency is expected to continue.

“Governments in Southeast Asia with human rights or democracy issues will feel less or no pressure on this front,” Kantathi opined.

Those leaders, including in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, all seen as leaning toward China, can expect less confrontation from Washington in responding to their lack of fair elections, free speech and other human rights-related issues, which Democratic administrations like the outgoing Joe Biden government often emphasize.

Regional leaders are also presumably adjusting their diplomatic behavior to respond to Trump’s erratic style.

“Under his strongman leadership, a personal relationship with him has heightened value,” Kantathi said. “Leaders with skills in complimenting Trump will benefit. Charm offensive skills will have enhanced value.

“Government leaders who show preference for a transactional approach and determination to work towards a trade balance with the US, will be seen in a positive light,” the former top envoy added.

Trump’s return to power threatens to spark a US-China trade war, which some analysts suggest may benefit countries like Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam as companies seek to relocate their operations from China to Southeast Asia to eschew Trump’s tariffs.

During Trump’s previous term, a first trade war salvo on select Chinese goods drove many companies out of China and into Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs and quotas on “made-in-China” goods and services. Vietnam was a particular beneficiary of that migration, but a next bigger exodus could benefit others.

“Cambodia could be a major winner if the US President-elect Donald Trump goes through with his threat to drastically hike tariffs on Chinese goods,” the Phnom Penh-based Khmer Times online recently reported. “US companies are already planning to shift production to the kingdom [Cambodia] from China as they look for alternative sources of goods.”

Cambodia Chamber of Commerce vice president Lim Heng told the local publication, “We know all about the [trade] war threat between China and America. This threat will push Chinese companies to invest more in Cambodia.”

“Chinese companies and regional companies will come here and invest in Cambodia and export to the US, Europe and other places,” he projected.

Cambodian exports of clothing, electrical goods, raw materials, and travel accessories could benefit from new US tariffs, which Trump has suggested will rise to 60% for all goods made in China and 20% elsewhere.

Still, regional countries will rue having to make the push-comes-to-shove choice of backing either the US or China if the world’s two biggest economies wage an all-out trade war.

Some fear Trump’s tariffs will drive China to dump even more of its excess goods into proximal Southeast Asian markets, putting more low-cost, competitive pressure on local manufacturers and businesses.

“The Thai government must also be careful to not be perceived as having an unfairly close alliance with China, or be a hub for Chinese investors, in a way that could undermine the image of Thai exports,” a Bangkok Post editorial warned on November 8.

“We want to be loved by China. We want to be loved by America,” said Thailand’s Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan in September before Trump’s election win.

Some in Asia, however, perceive an increasingly desperate America grappling with wars and hostilities scattered across the world that is in need of friends and allies.

Southeast Asia “now has more bargaining power than before and sees that the United States will interfere in the conflict in the South China Sea,” Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Bangkok’s Rangsit University, said in an interview. Therefore, America’s position is not as strong as before.”

Indeed, China appears to be gaining in regional influence.

“He [Trump] should know that in recent years, Chinese capital has had a huge influence in [Southeast Asian] countries, both legally and illegally, and many countries are happy to accept it because of their geopolitical location that is very close to China, coupled with the fact that many countries have Chinese descent, and in terms of culture or tradition it is easy to accept being Chinese,” Wanwichit said.

For example, China was the enemy of US-backed Indonesia during its anti-communist purges and extrajudicial killings that targeted ethnic Chinese across the archipelagic nation during the old Cold War.

Today, Beijing has built a Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail as part of its global Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure-building program and has poured billions into the nation’s nickel industry, a key element in the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs).

“He [Trump] should understand that because of the rise of China in the [Southeast Asian] region, and what appears to be Washington’s diminished interest there, several Asian countries have increasingly hedged or sought to create balance between China and the US. This includes Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia,” Paul Chambers, a Southeast Asian security affairs specialist at Naresuan University, said in an interview.

At the same time, regional countries that perceive China as pressing too hard for power and influence may welcome Trump’s return to the presidency.

“Given Trump’s demonstrated anti-China policy in his first term, his return to office in 2024 points to more economic and security benefits for countries feeling bullied by China in Asia, namely Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Japan, and South Korea,” Chambers said.

“Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia are the frontline states in the eyes of the United States as a result of China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea,” Kasit Piromya, another former Thai foreign minister, said in an interview.

Washington and Bangkok enjoy close diplomatic, economic, and, especially, military relations – all of which are expected to continue under Trump.

“If Trump offers positive inducements to the Thai military, relations will improve,” Chambers, an expert in the Thai military, said.

Thailand, a non-NATO US treaty ally, is especially adept at balancing its relations with the US and China, delicately seeking the unique advantages each superpower offers the kingdom.

Trump’s return to the White House coincides with the US Pentagon’s hopes to sell Lockheed Martin’s F-16 warplanes to Thailand against strong competition from Sweden’s Saab-made Gripen E/F fighter aircraft.

US defense contractor Boeing is now building eight AH-6 “Little Bird” combat attack helicopters for the Royal Thai Army and will soon train Thai pilots at the US Army Yuma Proving Ground at Mesa, Arizona.

In July, a couple of Beechcraft/Textron AT-6TH Wolverine light attack aircraft were delivered from its Providence, Rhode Island-based factory to Thailand’s air force.

Possible options include arming the Wolverines with laser-guided bombs, AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles and other weapons. One year ago, the US donated a dozen patrol boats to the Thai Marine Police.

“The US is ready to work closely with Thailand in many areas, including modernizing the military, combating drugs and strengthening economic ties,” US Ambassador to Thailand Robert Godec said in October while meeting Chusak Sirinil, a minister in the prime minister’s office. Chusak said, “Thailand remains a steadfast ally of the United States.”

If Trump takes a targeted hard line against Beijing and its regional allies, countries such as Cambodia could come under new pressure for their close financial relations with Chinese businesses that have profited from the country’s real estate, natural resources, tourism and other industries.

US-Cambodia relations are already strained by Washington’s criticism of Phnom Penh’s slide toward authoritarianism and human rights clampdown. Cambodia has criticized the US of interference in its internal affairs and even suggested the US tried to orchestrate a “color revolution” to topple previous Prime Minister Hun Sen’s regime.

The US also suspects Cambodia has entered a secret pact to allow China exclusive access to its Ream Naval Base on Cambodia’s southern coast along the Gulf of Thailand, allegations Phnom Penh has consistently denied.

Apparently hoping to improve relations with Trump, now Senate president Hun Sen optimistically posted on his Facebook account:

“Before the election, Donald Trump sent a message to the American people and around the world about loving peace, war-hating, [and] so-called pacifism. Trump’s victory shows that Americans love peace rather than having an outright war in Ukraine and Israel.”

Richard S Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books, “Rituals. Killers. Wars. & Sex. — Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York” and “Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks” are available here.