A major strategic realignment is underway in South Asia. In a historical first since Bangladesh’s founding in 1971, a direct cargo ship from Pakistan docked at Bangladesh’s Chittagong port, signaling an unprecedented thaw in relations between the two countries, which had been part of the same nation for nearly a quarter century.

The cargo vessel from Karachi arrived at Bangladesh’s southeastern port city of Chittagong on November 11, marking the first-ever direct maritime contact between the two countries in over five decades.

Establishing a direct maritime link between India’s eastern and western neighbors signals a major realignment in the region and has New Delhi alarmed.

For New Delhi, this is just one in a series of signals by the three-month-old Muhammad Yunus-led caretaker government in Bangladesh that Dhaka is slowly but certainly drifting towards Islamabad.

The Panama-flagged Yuan Xiang Fa Zhan, an 182-meter-long container ship, offloaded its cargo in Bangladesh before leaving port, news agency AFP reported, quoting top Chittagong port official Omar Faruq.

Port authorities said the ship brought goods from Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates, including raw materials for Bangladesh’s key garment industry and basic foodstuffs.

Pakistan’s envoy to Dhaka, Syed Ahmed Maroof, gave the details on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), “Direct cargo vessel from Karachi has reached Chittagong, marking the first direct maritime link between Pakistan & Bangladesh. The direct route promises to significantly streamline supply chains and reduce transit time besides enhancing bilateral trade and business ties.”

Incidentally, the establishment of a direct maritime link between the two estranged countries comes after Bangladesh, in September, eased import restrictions on Pakistani goods, which previously required a mandatory 100 % physical inspection of goods on arrival, which resulted in long delays.

Also, the lack of a direct maritime link meant that, previously, Pakistani goods had to be off-loaded onto feeder vessels, usually in Sri Lanka, Malaysia, or Singapore, before traveling onwards to Bangladesh.

People on social media expressed hope that this is just the beginning and that a direct flight between Islamabad and Dhaka and the signing of a free trade agreement between the countries should follow.

There is also a buzz that popular Pakistani singer Rahat Fateh Ali Khan can perform in the Bangladesh Premier League’s (BPL) 10th Edition opening ceremony.

All these developments have India alarmed for obvious reasons. Since the Muhammad Yunus-led caretaker government came to power in Bangladesh in August this year, multiple signals suggest Dhaka’s historic realignment away from India in favor of Pakistan.

Bangladesh’s Historic Realignment

One of the first signs that the new government in Bangladesh is warming up to Pakistan and drifting away from India came less than 30 days after Muhammad Yunus took over as its leader following the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s government after month-long violent protests.

In August, Bangladesh and parts of northeast India, including Tripura, Assam, and Meghalaya, experienced heavy rainfall that led to unprecedented floods. Within hours, Bangladeshi cyberspace was inundated with posts that alleged India deliberately released more water from the Dumbur Dam, upstream of the Gumti River in India’s Tripura State, to cause flooding in Bangladesh.

The narrative peddled was that New Delhi was doing this to punish Dhaka for the August 5 uprising that led to the overthrow of the Sheikh Hasina government, widely perceived to be close to India.

While such social media chatter does not usually warrant a response from the government, such was the appeal of this fake narrative that the Indian Ministry of External Affairs had to issue a clarification that the flood was not caused by India.

Then on September 11, the National Press Club, Dhaka, organized an event commemorating the 76th death anniversary of Pakistan founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah. Kamran Dhangal, the Deputy High Commissioner of Pakistan to Bangladesh, attended the event.

The ceremony featured banners displaying Jinnah’s motto, “Unity, Faith, and Discipline.” Speakers at the event asserted that without Jinnah, Pakistan—and consequently Bangladesh—would not have existed. Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, was formed out of Pakistan after the Liberation War in 1971.

Such an event, crediting Jinnah with the founding of Bangladesh, would have been unthinkable during Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule.

Mohammad Samsuddin, a speaker at the event, said had it not been for the formation of Pakistan, Bangladesh may have faced a situation similar to Kashmir. “Bangladesh achieved independence because of Pakistan, which Jinnah helped to establish,” declared Samsuddin.

He also suggested that Bangabandhu Avenue should be renamed Jinnah Avenue. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, father of Sheikh Hasina and leader of Bangladesh’s Liberation War, is popularly known as Bangabandhu. Jinnah Avenue was changed to Bangabandhu Avenue in 1972 after the bloody Liberation War.

These sentiments showed that a clear attempt was made that Bangladesh should look for its identity and roots within the Pakistan movement of 1947 that broke India and not in the Liberation War of 1971 that dismembered Pakistan.

The event closed with the singing of Urdu songs. The use of Urdu was also loaded with symbolism, given that language was one of the main issues that led to the formation of Bangladesh.

When Pakistan was established in 1947, Urdu was declared its national language, even though Bengali was spoken by the majority in East Pakistan. Also, since East Pakistan was more populous than West Pakistan, Bengali had an equal, if not stronger, claim to be declared a national language.

This language discrimination led to the first mass movement in East Pakistan, which many believe ultimately led to a separatist movement that culminated in the 1971 Liberation War.

The new caretaker Bangladesh government is also expanding military ties with Islamabad. In September, Bangladesh ordered 40,000 rounds of ammunition, 2,000 units of tank ammunition, 40 tons of RDX explosives, and 2,900 high-intensity projectiles from Pakistan’s Ordinance Factories (POF).

In September, Interim Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus met his Pakistani counterpart, Shehbaz Sharif, at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where he emphasized the need to revitalize bilateral cooperation and turn a “new page.”

In October, the interim government canceled eight national holidays related to Bangladesh’s independence and Mujibur Rahman.

This was followed by a meeting between Pakistan’s High Commissioner, Syed Ahmed Maroof, and Nahid Islam, a key students’ protest coordinator against Hasina and an adviser to the current interim government, where he expressed the desire to “resolve the 1971 issue” with Pakistan. This contrasts sharply with the previous Hasina government’s policy to seek an official apology from Islamabad for the atrocities committed by the Pakistani Army during the 1971 Liberation War.

Last month, Dhaka University Professor Shahiduzzamaneven called for a nuclear treaty between Bangladesh and Pakistan, citing concerns over India’s influence in the region and suggested that Pakistan’s Ghauri missiles should be deployed in Bangladesh.

Earlier this month, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Syed Ahmed Maroof, announced that Bangladeshis would now be eligible for free visas under business and visit categories.

On November 18, the Yunus-led government finished 100 days in power. Speaking on the occasion, Yunus highlighted the interim government’s plan to extradite former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, from India. He also dismissed reports about attacks on Hindu minorities as “exaggerated propaganda,” attributing the “sporadic incidents” as political and not communal in nature.

India’s Concerns

These developments clearly establish that a major realignment is underway in the South Asian region. India is rightly alarmed. India shares a porous border of 4,096 kilometers (2,545 miles) with Bangladesh.

India needs Dhaka’s cooperation to secure its northeastern states. Many of the terror groups active in India’s northeastern states have found refuge in Bangladesh.

While establishing a direct maritime link between Dhaka and Islamabad can be termed a desire to expand trade, New Delhi should remain alert as Pakistan has a history of using Bangladesh to foment trouble in India’s northeast.

In 2004, a shipment of arms from Pakistan meant for a terror group in India’s northeast was intercepted at Chittagong port.

Another irritant between India and Bangladesh could be Sheikh Hasina. While Bangladesh is preparing to demand Hasina’s extradition from India, former Indian diplomats believe it would be unthinkable for New Delhi to return Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh.

“India would not, in any scenario, extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh, regardless of the pressure,” Ajay Bisaria, India’s former high commissioner to Pakistan, was quoted as saying by DW.

South Asia expert Sreeradha Datta also said that it was “unlikely that India will let Hasina down” by deportation.

“Both governments must show pragmatism and maturity while dealing with the situation. It cannot be the case that allowing Hasina to stay should impinge on future relations,” Datta, a professor of international affairs at the Jindal Global University, said.

Bangladesh Needs India More Than New Delhi Needs Dhaka

For now, India is adopting a wait-and-watch policy regarding Bangladesh. While expressing its desire to work with the new dispensation in Dhaka, New Delhi is allowing the anti-India sentiments to mellow and letting them realize that Dhaka needs New Delhi as much as India needs Bangladesh.

India is the only country Bangladesh shares a land border with, and the two countries have common security interests.

Also, Pakistan is itself in an economic mess and can hardly offer Dhaka anything. In the Financial Year 2023, Bangladesh’s bilateral trade with India was US$15.9 billion compared to a meager US$699 million with Pakistan. Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, while India is Bangladesh’s second-biggest trade partner in Asia.

India exports diverse products to Bangladesh, including cotton yarn, petroleum products, oils, spices, and auto components. On the other hand, India imports essential commodities from Bangladesh, such as cotton ready-made garments, aircraft and spacecraft parts, jute, leather footwear, and marine products.

Bangladesh also depends on New Delhi for electricity, supplied through cross-border transmission lines. According to the Ministry of External Affairs, Bangladesh imports 1160 MW of power from India.

Over the past few years, India has also extended several lines of credit (LoC) to Bangladesh worth US$8 billion and additional grant assistance for several infrastructure projects.

“Bangladesh is surviving on external debt. Unchecked external borrowing has put Bangladesh at great risk of economic crisis that may fuel the ongoing social anarchy in the country. Bangladesh’s economic challenges include a culture of loan defaults, poor corporate governance, and price hikes for fuel and electricity,” DrPrabir De, Professor with New Delhi-based think tank RIS, was quoted as saying by The Economic Times.

With these critical dependencies, it won’t be long before Dhaka realizes it can not go too far by alienating India, but in the meantime, India should not let its guard down.

• Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from The University of Sheffield, UK. 
• He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com