Leftist Coalition’s Seismic Victory Reshapes Sri Lanka’s Political Landscape

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) party has achieved a historic victory in Sri Lanka’s November 14 general election, securing a two-thirds majority in Parliament with 6,863,186 votes and 159 seats. This is the most dominant victory by a Sri Lankan political party at any general election since the proportional representation system was introduced to the country in 1978.

Proportional representation was introduced to ensure that a single party does not dominate the parliament.

This victory, greater than Mahinda Rajapaksa’s United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) post-war victory in 2010 and Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna victory in 2020, broke a number of records with regards to parliamentary elections in the country. The NPP’s dominance was overwhelming; it won every electoral district except Batticaloa. Districts such as Colombo, Gampaha, Kandy, Jaffna, Galle, and many others decisively supported the party, highlighting a major shift in the political landscape.

The NPP’s victory marks a turning point in Sri Lanka’s political history, representing the end of nepotism and patronage-based politics that have dominated the nation since independence in 1948. For decades, political power was concentrated among family dynasties such as the Senanayakes, Bandaranaikes, Rajapaksas, Jayawardenes, and Premadasas. These families, along with other entrenched political elites, built networks of patronage, distributing positions, material goods, and resources to secure votes and consolidate power. This system has long stymied Sri Lanka’s progress, and its inefficiencies were further exposed during the economic crisis of 2022, prompting widespread disillusionment among voters.

The NPP has set itself apart by rejecting this patronage-driven model and instead offering a vision focused on transparency, equity, and public service. This approach resonated with voters in September’s presidential election, where Anura Kumara Dissanayake received 42 percent of the vote. By November, public trust in the NPP had grown significantly, enabling the party to win 61.6 percent of the vote in the general election. During the run-up to the presidential election, billions of rupees were spent by the NPP’s opponents to discredit Dissanayake and warn of economic collapse if he assumed power. One month into Dissanayake’s presidency, these dire predictions have not materialized, and public satisfaction with the government’s initial steps is evident in the election results.

The election results also marked a crushing defeat for the traditional political establishment. Sajith Premadasa’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya won 40 seats with 1,968,716 votes, down sharply from the 4.3 million votes it garnered in September’s presidential election. The SLPP, led by the Rajapaksa family, was reduced to just 3 seats and 350,429 votes – a stunning fall from its 59 percent landslide victory in 2020. Ranil Wickremesinghe’s New Democratic Front managed only 5 seats with 500,835 votes, a significant decline from his 2.2 million votes in the presidential election.

Many prominent figures of the old guard, including former cabinet ministers and senior MPs, failed to secure seats. Notable figures such as Ranil Wickremesinghe and members of the Rajapaksa family did not even contest the election, signaling a retreat of the traditional elite from the political stage. Meanwhile, a large number of former ministers have failed to enter parliament and faced humiliating defeats.

Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the NPP’s victory was its unprecedented success in the Northern and Eastern Provinces, regions traditionally dominated by regional Tamil and Muslim parties like the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK). While ITAK managed to retain Batticaloa district, the NPP secured every other district in these provinces, ending decades of reliance on caste-based and patronage politics in these areas.

The NPP’s approach of building its own grassroots structures in the North and East, rather than forming alliances with regional parties, proved to be a winning strategy. This allowed the party to capitalize on shifting voter sentiment, particularly after the Sinhalese majority demonstrated its willingness to support Dissanayake in September, which encouraged minority voters to embrace the new political culture.

This shift was further reinforced by the efforts of NPP activists and social media campaigns, which resonated with younger voters in minority communities.

The NPP’s resounding victory is a significant moment in Sri Lanka’s history, reflecting the electorate’s rejection of the nepotism and patronage that have long hindered progress. By uniting voters across ethnic and regional lines, the NPP has shown the potential for a new era of inclusive and accountable governance. The challenges ahead are substantial. President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s hastily signed agreement with the IMF has ensured that Sri Lanka remains in a debt spiral unless immediate steps are taken to modernize agriculture and develop industries.

On the other hand, the battered regional ethnic and religion-based political parties in the North and the East are likely to stoke racism and paranoia among those who live in the area to shore up its deteriorating voter base. These political parties, like most of their Southern counterparts, have shown little interest in ideas, policies and development over the past decades. Will they take a long hard look at what went wrong? Will they change with the new political culture? It seems unlikely.

The NPP’s victory in Sri Lanka under President Anura Kumara Dissanayake significantly impacts India, reshaping bilateral relations and regional dynamics. The end of nepotistic politics offers India an opportunity to engage with a reform-oriented government focused on anti-corruption and transparency, potentially improving collaboration on trade and infrastructure.

The NPP’s approach could lead to greater scrutiny of foreign projects, including those involving India. The Adani Group’s windpower projects are likely to come under greater scrutiny.

The NPP’s success in Tamil-dominated regions could alter India’s approach to addressing Tamil issues, shifting focus away from regional intermediaries. Domestically, the rejection of family-driven patronage could influence Indian political discourse, particularly in states dominated by dynasties. While the NPP’s rise presents challenges, such as adapting to a non-traditional governance style, it also offers opportunities for India to strengthen ties and contribute to regional stability.