Moving Forward from Ditwah: Understanding the Scale, Impact and Road to Recovery

Photo courtesy of FloodList

The most devastating natural disaster to hit Sri Lanka in decades, Cyclone Ditwah, has forced the country into its most severe climate-related humanitarian crisis in recent memory. Sri Lanka is only beginning to recover and analysts are only now starting to review the disaster in its totality and examine its economic, health and agricultural impacts and the methods by which the country can pursue the challenging pathway that lies ahead.

A study by Prof. Lakshman Galagedara, a specialist in hydrology and agrophysics, estimates that Sri Lanka received close to 10% of its total yearly rainfall in just a single 24 hour period. Rainfall in the region is normally spread across the population.

The earth had already been saturated five days earlier. By November 28 the soil had no capacity to absorb any additional moisture. Any added moisture became surface runoff. In this case, the surface runoff was gargantuan.

The highest estimated discharge for the entire flow was around 150,463 cubic meters per second. To put this number to some perspective the largest river in the world, the Amazon, which has a discharge of 222,000 cubic metres per second but has a catchment area of 7,000,000 square kilometres in comparison to Sri Lanka, which has a catchment area of only 65,000 square kilometres.

In other words, from less than 1% of the Amazon’s catchment area, Sri Lanka released nearly 70% of the Amazon’s peak discharge rate. For a country that small to generate such an immense flow of water is unimaginable. Simply put, the hydrological overload lay beyond the structural and natural capacity of the country.

The catastrophe caused by Cyclone Ditwah is almost incomprehensible in scale. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Disaster Management Centre (DMC) reported 640 deaths and 211 missing people. In addition, the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) identified a total of 1,739,923 affected, nearly eight per cent of the total population.

Displacement level reached its peak during the crisis which turned the whole situation into a serious humanitarian emergency. Governmental shelters were overflowing and over 180,000 people belonging to more than 51,000 families were staying in those shelters. They all lost their possessions in a matter of hours as the floodwater rushed through their areas.

Critical infrastructure across the country suffered widespread damage. Road networks collapsed under landslides, flooding and soil erosion with over 16,000 kilometres of roads and 278 kilometres of railway lines exposed to floodwaters. More than 40 bridges were affected and more than 5,000 houses were completely destroyed. Although the Ceylon Electricity Board managed to restore most connections in the aftermath, nearly 3.9 million people experienced prolonged power outages.

The economic consequences of Cyclone Ditwah are unfolding rapidly and are likely to compound existing pressures on the fragile economy.

According to CT Smith Stock Brokers’ Economic Update, the widespread destruction of agricultural areas combined with transport disruptions is expected to push inflation above previously projected year end levels of 3.5-4.0% with food prices likely to spike in the short term. The report also highlights the potential for increased imports of essential consumables, which could further strain foreign exchange reserves and continue to weaken the rupee, which has already depreciated by 1.3% in the past month due to higher import demand and reduced liquidity in the forex market.

Small and medium enterprises, which tend to lack reserves, experienced losses due to damaged goods, equipment and extended shutdowns. Urban and peri-urban service sectors experienced extended periods of inactivity, resulting in the loss of daily income. Informal workers dependent on day to day earnings experienced immediate and severe income shocks.

Steps have been taken by the government to mobilise resources swiftly in an attempt to address the economic shock. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has told district secretaries to move ahead with relief efforts despite any hesitation they may have concerning costs. A sum of Rs.1.2 billion has been authorised to address immediate disaster needs. Further, an additional sum of Rs.30 billion has been allocated in the budget of 2025 for emergency needs.

The healthcare implications of Cyclone Ditwah are still emerging. It is already known that post-cyclone environments are conducive to the outbreak of waterborne and vector borne diseases and the medical reports that are already emerging are indicative of potential healthcare crises on the following lines, “Contaminated drinking water in flood-prone areas increases the potential for diarrheal disease outbreaks, whereas the predominant immersion of the population in floodwaters raises the risk of leptospirosis outbreaks.”

Apart from physical ailments, the emotional stress that may manifest in displaced families due to trauma and uncertainty is slowly beginning to come to the fore. The health concerns will just worsen unless the health concerns of the entire region can be closely monitored and mitigated.

Cyclone Ditwah has delivered one of the most devastating blows to the agricultural sector in decades. For days entire agriculture areas in the North Central, Eastern, Uva, Sabaragamuwa and Southern Provinces were submerged. The floodwaters destroyed irrigation systems, carried away standing crops and covered productive fields with thick silt layers.

According to The Morning, citing Department of Agriculture Director General Dr. W. A. R. Thushara Wickramaarachchi, approximately 137,000 hectares of paddy fields, out of 611,000 hectares planted statewide, have been impacted, making up 22% of the total paddy area.

The cost of restoring the agricultural sector is substantial. The Daily Mirror  reported that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has requested Rs.31 billion to repair cyclone damaged paddy lands, crops and irrigation infrastructure, highlighting a systemwide breakdown that threatens future harvests and food security.

Sri Lanka is currently in a challenging position. Although the storm has passed, the weaknesses it exposed in social safety nets, infrastructure and readiness will continue to influence the course of the country for years to come.

But despite this challenge that it faces, there is hope. A civil war that lasted for many years, the tsunami that struck in 2004, the terror attacks in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic are among the trials that Sri Lanka has had to go through that has tested its mettle. But every time, it has come out stronger.

For those wishing to help, in order to ensure that assistance reaches the communities most in need, the government has made verified donation and in kind contribution information available through the official portal of the Disaster Management Centre.