SJB Leads in Parliamentary Elections For First Time Since 2022

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The latest estimates from Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) SLOTS MRP model confirm an increasing trend in support for SJB at the expense of the NPP/JVP. The SJB on 38% (+4) took the lead with all voters for the first time since 2022, ahead of the NPP/JVP on 35% (-2), the SLPP at 8% (unchanged) and the UNP at 5% (unchanged). The March estimates are provisional and are associated with a margin of error of 1–3% for the four leading parties.

Compared to IHP’s February release, IHP estimates of NPP and SJB support in February 2024 were revised -7 and +5 points. Dr Ravi Rannan-Eliya, SLOTS polling director, commented that this was an unusually large revision, and was driven by a large uptick in SJB support in the early April interviews. But he cautioned that it would be best to wait a couple of months to see if this was just noise or a real trend.

These estimates are for all adults and not for likely voters. They are based on the January 2024 revision of the IHP SLOTS Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model. IHP is working on improving its likely voter model and will resume release of voting intent in likely voters in a future update. But it should be noted that differences in voting intent shares between all adults and likely voters have typically been 1–2% for most estimates in the past two years.

This March 2024 update is based on 16,671 interviews conducted with adults across Sri Lanka since October 2021, including 527 interviews carried out in March 2024. IHP’s SLOTS MRP methodology estimates the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about respondents and their opinions, in this case, “If there was a General Election today, which party would you vote for?” in a multilevel statistical model.

Methodology details

SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection and face-to-face interviews.

The March 2024 MRP estimates are based on 16,671 interviews conducted from 1 October 2021–21 April 2024 including 527 interviews conducted in March 2024. The margin of error is assessed as 0.5–1.4% for the UNP, SLPP, SLFP, SLMC and 1.5–3.0% for CWC, NPP/JVP, SJB, ITAK and the other parties.