Sri Lanka’s 2030 Military Downsizing Plan and Its Consequences

Photo courtesy of Sri Lanka Air Force

Sri Lanka’s armed forces have long functioned in many roles. In addition to their core defence responsibilities, they are involved in disaster management, humanitarian assistance, civil administration support and the protection of critical national situations. Yet public attention and appreciation often surface only during moments of crisis when military personnel are seen on the front lines supporting communities. It is important to remember that the armed forces have saved countless lives time and again while repeatedly placing themselves at risk to protect others.

To the armed forces, we remain eternally grateful. As a nation, we must stand with them as steadfastly as they stand with us. At the same time, it is crucial to remind the policymakers that a shift toward a high tech, low manpower in the military may not fully align with Sri Lanka’s geographic and socio-economic realities.

If the restructuring focuses too heavily on creating a lean, combat-oriented, high tech force, the military may lose this broader national role. A reduction in manpower could weaken the country’s ability to respond quickly and effectively to the diverse emergencies it faces every year. In a nation regularly impacted by unpredictable climate driven events, this loss of flexibility could affect thousands of civilians. A substantial reduction in troop numbers may weaken this safety net, leaving the government with fewer resources to maintain stability during unexpected situations.

Easter Sunday attacks 2019

The Easter Sunday suicide bombings in 2019 marked the deadliest act of violence in the country since the end of the civil war in 2009. A series of coordinated explosions struck three churches and three hotels, claiming hundreds of lives and injured many more, sending shockwaves across the nation and the world.

In the aftermath, emergency personnel and security forces rushed to provide aid, evacuate victims and secure the areas. In the weeks and months following the attacks, security forces maintained heightened vigilance across the island. Checkpoints were increased, intelligence sharing was strengthened and public awareness campaigns were initiated to prevent further threats. Their proactive measures helped ensure that extremist elements could not regroup or carry out additional attacks, giving the public a sense of safety during a period of national trauma.

COVID-19 pandemic 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged the world in unprecedented ways, forcing individuals, communities and nations to adjust their lifestyles and systems to cope with the crisis. According to the Ministry of Health, the pandemic affected over 671,000 people and claimed more than 16,500 lives.

From the early stages of the pandemic, the armed forces worked tirelessly to halt the spread of COVID-19. Their responsibilities included tracking potential COVID-19 cases, facilitating testing and ensuring the safe transport of suspected individuals to quarantine centers. By monitoring and containing the spread of the virus, the armed forces provided an essential public health service that complemented the efforts of the Ministry of Health and other authorities. They assisted in enforcing lockdowns, controlling public gatherings and preventing criminal activities that could exploit the crisis.

Cyclone Ditwah

During Cyclone Ditwah, the Army deployed over 24,000 troops to support affected communities, demonstrating a remarkable combination of preparedness, coordination and humanitarian dedication. According to the Ministry of Defence, the Army helped to establish 195 temporary shelters providing food, water and accommodation to over 5,600 families displaced by floods and landslides.

The Air Force deployed a range of aircraft to conduct rescue operations, deliver essential supplies and assist individuals trapped by rising floodwaters. The Navy is providing critical disaster relief services in the Southern, Eastern, Northwestern, and North Central provinces. In collaboration with the Disaster Management Centre (DMC), naval teams carried out rescue missions, removed fallen trees obstructing roads and transported essential supplies to isolated families using small boats.

The operations have claimed the lives of several personnel, underscoring the extreme risks faced by the armed forces while performing humanitarian and disaster relief duties in hazardous conditions.

Path toward military restructuring

Defence expenditure has undergone significant changes from 2019 to 2026, reflecting both national security priorities and the broader economic challenges facing the country. The Ministry of Defence’s budget has grown steadily, rising from Rs. 279.1 billion in 2019 to Rs. 455 billion in 2026. The allocations cover recurrent expenditure, including salaries, pensions, operational costs, supplies, maintenance and ongoing military activities.

Although Sri Lanka’s defence budget has shown steady increases, these upward figures do not accurately reflect the ministry’s real purchasing power. After the 2022 economic crisis, the country faced high inflation, significant currency depreciation and sharply rising import costs. Under these conditions, even a nominal increase such as the roughly 3% rise from 2025 to 2026 can amount to a real term decline once inflation and exchange rate fluctuations are taken into account. The costs of imported defence equipment, spare parts, aviation fuel, naval components and other critical materials have escalated considerably, reducing what the ministry can actually procure or maintain with the allocated funds.

High tech, low manpower force

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake addressed parliament in February, outlining a major restructuring initiative aimed at modernizing Sri Lanka’s armed forces while reducing long term expenditure. He stated that by 2030, the Army will be limited to 100,000 personnel, the Navy to 40,000 and the Air Force to 18,000. He emphasized that despite this reduction, efforts will be made to modernize the military with advanced technology. Analysts have noted that inflation has effectively eroded much of the apparent growth in defence spending, particularly during the 2024–2026 period, where increases are modest compared to the more substantial jumps in earlier years.

Potential risks and challenges

In many countries emerging from long conflicts, armed forces naturally assume responsibilities that go far beyond traditional combat operations. Sri Lanka is no exception. Since the end of the civil war, the Army, Navy and Air Force have taken on a wide range of civil and administrative roles such as community level security, maritime policing, road and infrastructure maintenance, reconstruction, supporting local governance and public service functions in remote regions. Over time, these tasks have become deeply integrated into national stability and day to day state operations. Any reduction in manpower must therefore consider the wide spectrum of non-combat duties the forces currently fulfill.

Modernizing the military is a truly positive step but advanced technology cannot substitute for the large, flexible manpower required in frequent civil support missions. Disaster relief tasks such as evacuations, flood rescue, distributing supplies, clearing collapsed roads, demining, rebuilding damaged infrastructure and search and rescue depend heavily on physical presence. These operations require thousands of hands on personnel across multiple districts simultaneously. High tech units, while valuable in defence roles, may not be suited for such broad humanitarian needs that demand mobility, labor and direct community engagement.

Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to pandemic situations and natural disasters such as floods, landslides and cyclones. In nearly all of these emergencies, the armed forces have played a central and irreplaceable role. For instance, with plans to reduce the Army’s strength from approximately 150,000 personnel to 100,000, the manpower available for emergency mobilization could decline sharply. A smaller force may struggle to deploy rapidly and in sufficient numbers during major disasters, especially if personnel are increasingly allocated to specialized or high tech units rather than general purpose rescue teams.

Advanced defence systems require continuous investment in maintenance, logistics, training and upgrades. Without adequate funding, high tech equipment can quickly degrade or become obsolete. Recent budget constraints, combined with inflation and currency depreciation, may limit the military’s ability to maintain such systems effectively. This creates a risk where downsizing coincides with reduced purchasing power, potentially leading to technology gaps rather than true transformation.

Strategic safeguards

Downsizing can be reasonable, but only if paired with a comprehensive and evidence-based restructuring approach. Several measures are essential:

• Conducting a robust assessment: A thorough study is needed to accurately determine personnel requirements for peacetime duties such as disaster response, humanitarian assistance, maritime security, internal security support and civil administrative tasks. Without this, reductions may create gaps in critical areas.
• Establishing a reserve or secondary force: A well-trained reserve or civil defense corps lighter and less costly than a full time military can provide surge manpower for disasters, large scale emergencies or internal security operations. This ensures the country retains flexibility even as active duty numbers decrease.
• Implementing clear demobilization and reintegration policies: As large numbers of experienced personnel retire, structured programs for retraining, upskilling, employment placement and social support will be vital. This reduces economic strain on veterans and minimizes broader social impacts.