Will the Parliamentary Election Result Add to System Change?
Photo courtesy of The Globe and Mail
The parliamentary election on November 14 is going to be like no other in Sri Lanka’s post independence history. Like the presidential election held on September 21, it will be another ground breaking expression of people’s will to change the government at a peaceful election. In particular, it will empower the disempowered and marginalised people from lower socio-economic classes and those from rural and urban fringes who have been misled by previous rulers either by offering temporary inducements while enjoying the aura of power or fear about the different other – generally ethnic minorities – and expensive media campaigns.
Those who live in various parts of the country, especially remote districts, used to experience the hardships of colonial administration and harsh environment before the independence. The situation did not improve much after independence as structures of power were dominated by the elitist, English educated ruling class initially. Then came those who were Swabashaeducated Sinhalese, Tamil and Muslim leaders, some with English as second language, controlling the government machinery along with the life of the people.
The National People Power (NPP), the alliance of a range of groups and individuals including the Janata Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), is in a unique position as it won the presidential elections last month. It did not form any alliance with traditional parties or alliances. It campaigned on a clean platform claiming that its members were not corrupt. During the last two years it developed a grassroots network of supporters and empathisers who were also educated about the existing problems in society and government, what needs to be done to correct it and need for a system change (political, economic and cultural). This need emerged during the 2022 Aragalaya period. However, with the departure of former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and selection of RanilWickremesinghe as interim president, the aims of aragalaya could not be achieved because instead of a system change, President Wickremesinghe and his government consolidated the political and governance establishment with the support of security forces and the police.
It is ironical that the NPP had to devise a much broader movement across the country to win power at the national elections in 2024. This was no easy task given the JVP held only three seats in the parliament. The NPP was against a very powerful traditional political establishment appearing in diverse forms publicly. Nonetheless, ground conditions including cost of living challenges, failures of key areas for human sustenance such as education and health coupled with widespread accusations of government corruption and waste along with mismanagement changed substantially during the last two years to allow the NPP to claim victory. The stage is set for the NPP to gain a majority in the parliament with the expected result in parliamentary elections.
However, it is not certain whether the NPP is able to claim an overwhelming majority in the parliament although its leaders expect it to be certain. If it receives a majority, it will be able to pass legislation without much difficulty similar to the previous period where the Podu Jana Peramuna party of the Rajapaksas enjoyed a majority along with its affiliated groups and parties. However, to make changes to the existing constitution or introduce a new one, the NPP will require a two thirds majority. Given the way the voters have rallied around NPP during the presidential election and now the parliamentary election, obtaining such a majority is not out of the possibilities. On one hand, given the nature of challenges to be addressed to keep the boat at least floating, one can argue that such a majority is desirable. The counter argument is that when the executive president has so much power, giving his party a two thirds majority will create a democratic dictatorship. Thus, the argument that the country needs a powerful opposition also to make sure there is enough checks and balances in the decision making process through legislation.
If the NPP only gains a simple majority in the parliament, it will still be able to govern comfortably. For votes requiring a two thirds majority, it will have to seek the support of minor parties and groups or the main opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). In pre-election discussions, its representatives have stated that if the need arises, they will consider such a proposition on a case bycase basis. The NPP doesn’t seem to have the appetite to enter into alliance agreements with other parties or alliances but it may entertain support on specific legislative measures as necessary. If this happens it will be good for the country.
The SJB has aspirations to form a government as well. This depends on the number of seats to be won by the SJB. If it gains more than 100 seats, then there will be an opportunity to enter into an agreement with other parties except NPP to form a government. This is also not out of the realm of possibilities.
Whatever the outcome on Thursday parliamentary election, Sri Lanka’s political landscape will be different from what existed before. Firstly, new generation of politicians have been empowered to drive the governance mechanism and process for the next five years. It is a generational shift that was overdue. Members of this generation are conscious about the historic role they have to play to ensure there is a system change. They are also educated through formal education and informal education. They are united by conviction along party lines of course. Secondly, for better or worse, the political culture will be different in the new parliament and governance circles. If the NPP keeps its promises, there will be no room for corruption, neglect, waste and mismanagement. Thirdly, there will be a sense of relief on the part of majority who were disempowered by the previously powerful political establishment knowing that current leaders will do the right thing by them. Nepotism and ethnic divisions will not have a place in governance either. They will take measures to stamp out inefficiencies in government institutions. Fourthly, citizens’ rights will be ensured along with the rule of law. Sri Lanka will move from a backward country with so many solvable problems to a united and forward looking country on par with its neighbours that are advanced technologically, educationally, professionally and in terms of service provisions in areas such as health, human wellbeing and respect for each other.
Addressing the economic problem is a major need. It is known that the new government will take steps to improve tourism, IT sector, industry, manufacturing and agriculture. With the help of economists and others the government is taking necessary steps to move this dimension. Institutional reform is another dimension to address. Mobilising the people from all walks of life for a common vision and goals is another challenge. Most of all Sri Lankans, whether they live in the country or overseas, will be able to express a sigh of relief if the system change takes place in a methodical and productive manner with no major hardships to the citizens.
