Will Ukraine attack civil aviation in Russia?

President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned airlines, insurers and foreign governments that Russian airspace “will be de facto closed” because of Ukrainian drones.

Although Ukraine does not threaten civil aviation, he said, carriers flying to Moscow, St. Petersburg, or other major hubs must factor in the risk of drones in Russian skies.

“The safe days in Russia’s skies are over,” he said, and Ukrainian drones will operate “on a scale that has to be taken into account.”

Either Zelensky’s statement was simply propaganda or his warning had more dire implications. The Russians understood Zelensky’s statement as a threat to commercial aviation. Vladimir Putin called it “state terrorism.”

Shutdowns of Russian commercial airports due to drone and missile attacks are nothing new. They have been quite common during the Ukraine War.

Russia has taken protective action around civil aviation facilities since drone attacks on Russian territory began in the spring of 2022.

The Moscow and St. Petersburg airports are strictly for commercial aviation and are not used for military operations. Both cities have nearby military airports.

In the past year Russia has halted airport operations during swarm drone attacks. Mass-scale incursions – such as sweeping multi-hundred-drone barrages targeting Moscow and surrounding oblasts – have forced successive closures and temporary ground stops.

For instance, international carriers’ operations have been disrupted often, leading to rolling cancellations, terminal evacuations and passengers being directed to emergency shelters.

Between February 2023 and May 2025, Russian airports closed at least 366 times under emergency “Carpet” protocols.

“Carpet” (or Kovyor) protocols are a standard emergency aviation safety procedure in Russia designed to immediately clear airspace when an unauthorized object or security threat – such as an incoming drone – is detected.

These disruptions have heavily impacted major aviation hubs like Moscow’s airports (Vnukovo, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, and Zhukovsky) as well as regional facilities across western and southern Russia, such as Kazan, Saratov and Sochi. Major regional shutdowns also occur from targeted strikes, such as when 13 southern airports simultaneously halted operations after a drone hit an air navigation facility in Rostov-on-Don.

There are about 60 foreign commercial carriers that fly to Russian airports. These include Emirates, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways, flydubai, Oman Air, Gulf Air, Air Arabia, and Flynas. Regional operators like El Al (Israel) and Royal Jordanian also maintain service.

Turkish Airlines (along with subsidiaries like AJet and Southwind Airlines) and low-cost carrier Pegasus Airlines operate extensive networks connecting multiple Russian cities directly to Turkish hubs.

Major Chinese airlines – Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines (alongside regional carriers like Beijing Capital, Sichuan, and Tianjin airlines) – run regular routes connecting China and Russia. Other Asian operators like Sri Lankan Airlines and Vietnam Airlines also maintain service.

Airlines from neighboring friendly states maintain heavy flight schedules into Russian hubs, including Air Serbia, Belarus’s Belavia, Azerbaijan Airlines, Uzbekistan Airways, Kazakhstan’s SCAT Airlines, and multiple carriers out of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Several African airlines operate routes into Russia, including EgyptAir, Ethiopian Airlines, Royal Air Maroc, Air Algérie, and Egyptian carriers like Air Cairo.

Russian airlines offer significant service in Russia and internationally and include Aeroflot, Pobeda, Rossiya, S7 (Siberia), Ural, Azimuth, Nordwind and Utair plus smaller specialized carriers.

The United States, the European Union, Canada, the United Kingdom, and other Western nations banned Russian aircraft and airlines from entering their airspace when the war began. In retaliation, Russia closed its airspace to carriers from over 30 countries, including all EU member states and the U.S. from the end of February, 2022.

Moscow’s four commercial airports handle between 1,500 and 1,800 flights per day. St. Petersburg handles 400 to 500 flights daily.

While Russia’s commercial airports remain in business, all of Ukraine’s commercial passenger air facilities have been closed since the start of the war. Travelers must fly into neighboring countries (such as Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, or Moldova) and cross into Ukraine by land via train or bus. The Ukrainian government’s primary presidential aircraft—an Airbus A319 operated by the state enterprise “Ukraine”—is based at a secure facility at the Krakow John Paul II International Airport in Poland.

Ukrainian swarm drone attacks on Russian territory are an effort to raise the cost of the war for Russia and demoralize the public and push Russia’s leaders into negotiations. Zelensky wants a ceasefire and the eventual withdrawal of Russia’s army from Ukraine’s territory. Putin says he will not negotiate with “terrorists.”

It is possible Ukraine can further step up drone attacks on Russian territory, but the Ukrainians also know that the Russians will retaliate and step up their own attacks. Russia has a range of weapons, including UAVs, that it can use and Russia has developed a new version of the Geran (Geran 3) which is jet powered and appears to be faster than any Ukrainian interceptor drone.

Increasingly the Russians are focusing on striking manufacturing and storage sites around Kyiv and energy and port operations in Odesa. Such attacks recently destroyed an important weapons storage site in a Kyiv suburb, and the Odessa attacks have all but halted grain and cooking oil exports from Odesa and stopped incoming arms shipments.

It is uncertain whether Zelensky’s warning will change the current pattern of attacks and retaliations. It is hard to see how Ukraine can keep launching hundreds of drones (sometimes as many as a thousand) every night against targets inside Russia, so it could be that Zelensky is saying more than he can do. The Russians are intensely focusing on Ukraine’s drone production facilities and warning outside suppliers, especially in the UK, that it might take action against them. What he really may do, Putin says, is a “military secret.”

This article by former US Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Stephen Bryen originally appeared on Weapons and Strategy, his newsletter.