We are witnessing a silent exodus of the garment industry- once the backbone of our exports- to Africa and other Asian nations, where labour is cheaper and tax regimes are friendlier. This shift has not only drained foreign exchange, but has pushed thousands of young women into the informal sector

• The tragedy of Sri Lanka is that the people with the “know-how” often lack the “know-who.”
• Wickremesinghe’s political Achilles’ heel is his inability to bridge the gap between intellectual governance and populist appeal 

In the complex landscape of Sri Lankan politics, a profound paradox exists: a nation with a 2,500-year-old civilization and a history of engineering marvels such as the world’s most advanced ancient irrigation systems now finds its modern electorate seemingly trapped in a cycle of short-term survival. The disconnect between a “Grand Vision” and the “Daily Wage” has never been more apparent than in the political fate of Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ambitious “2048 Vision”.

For an observer with an analytical mind, the 2048 Vision is not just a plan; it is a mathematical necessity for a bankrupt nation. However, for a majority of Sri Lankans, “2048” is a lifetime away, while “today’s meal” is a looming crisis. To understand why visionary leadership continues to fail at the Sri Lankan ballot box, we must dissect the socio-economic desperation and the strategic maneuvers that define our current political crossroads.

Realities vs. Slogans

Sri Lanka currently stands at a perilous junction. While the macro-indicators show a “miraculous” recovery compared to the dark days of 2022 when the treasury held a mere $20 million the micro-reality for the average citizen is a relentless struggle. The restoration of fuel, gas, and electricity under Wickremesinghe’s administration was an economic feat that drew parallels to Greece’s recovery, yet it came with the bitter pill of high taxation and austerity.

Today, the government faces a Herculean task:

 Currency Stability: Controlling the devaluation of the Rupee against the USD to prevent further inflation.

 Debt Servicing: Navigating the stringent repayment schedules of foreign loans and meeting the precise targets set by the IMF.

 The Investment Vacuum: Encouraging local investors and attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in a high-tax environment.

The irony is that while tax collection is the lifeblood of a state, excessive taxation is driving away the very engines of growth. We are witnessing a silent exodus of the garment industry- once the backbone of our exports- to Africa and other Asian nations, where labour is cheaper and tax regimes are friendlier. This shift has not only drained foreign exchange, but has pushed thousands of young women into the informal sector, often leading to the mushrooming of spas and other precarious livelihoods born out of sheer survival instinct.

The psychology of the voter: Why vision fails

The fundamental challenge for any visionary leader in Sri Lanka is the “Survivalist Mindset.” When a person is working for a daily wage, their cognitive horizon rarely extends beyond the next 24 hours. Long-term strategies like the 2048 Vision, which aim to turn Sri Lanka into a high-income nation by its centenary of independence, feel like “esoteric” concepts to those struggling with the current cost of living.

Historically, Sri Lankan voters have been conditioned to favour leaders who offer immediate, tangible relief. We have seen this pattern repeat with devastating consequences:

1. The 100-Day Package: Maithripala Sirisena’s 2015 campaign used a “100-day plan” to capture the imagination of the poor. It was a masterclass in catering to immediate wants, though it lacked the structural depth to sustain the country.

2. The Promise of “Free Manure”: Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s rise was fueled by popular slogans and populist promises, such as the organic fertilizer transition which, while sounding noble, was executed without scientific or economic foresight. The result was a total collapse of the agricultural sector.

3. The NPP Surge: The National People’s Power (NPP) moved from a 3% vote base to a two-thirds majority by tapping into the “anti-establishment” sentiment. They didn’t just sell a vision; they sold a “system change” and a moral crusade against corruption a narrative that resonates deeply with a population that feels cheated by the traditional elite.

The Wickremesinghe paradox

Ranil Wickremesinghe is arguably the most experienced statesman in the country’s modern history. His ability to stabilize a bankrupt economy between 2022 and 2024, in liaison with the IMF, India, and other donor nations, was a feat of high-level diplomacy and technocratic skill. He turned a “bankrupt” status into a “recovering” status within a remarkably short period.

However, Wickremesinghe’s political Achilles’ heel is his inability to bridge the gap between intellectual governance and populist appeal. His 2048 Vision is grounded in reality, but it is a “truth” that the majority isn’t yet ready to hear or cannot afford to understand. If he continues to play the “2048 card” in upcoming elections without addressing the “2026 survival,” the result is likely to be another defeat at the hands of those who offer immediate, albeit unsustainable, relief.

Case study of the NPP: From 3% to 61%

For the United National Party (UNP) and other traditional political entities, the 2024 and 2025 election results offer a vital case study. The NPP’s success wasn’t just about slogans; it was about strategy and presence.

 Ground-level Mobilization: While visionary leaders speak in boardrooms and through international media, the NPP spent decades building a grassroots network that understands the “pulse” of the daily wage earner.

 The Corruption Axis: They reframed the economic crisis not as a complex global issue, but as a simple moral one: “The leaders stole your money.” This simplification is powerful in an electorate that feels disenfranchised.

 Consolidation: By refusing to make deals with the “old guard,” they maintained a brand of “purity” that the youth and the disillusioned middle class found irresistible.

Can vision and pulse align?

The tragedy of Sri Lanka is that the people with the “know-how” often lack the “know-who.” To win in 2029 and beyond, a leader must be a hybrid: a visionary who can navigate the IMF, but also a communicator who can explain how that vision puts bread on the table tomorrow morning.

Conclusion

The current government’s biggest challenge remains: tax collection alone cannot build a nation. If they cannot pivot from “collecting” to “creating” by revitalizing the export sector and stopping the brain drain they too will fall victim to the same cycle of popular rejection.

Sri Lanka does not need more short-sighted leaders, but it desperately needs its visionary leaders to learn the language of the people. Until then, the “2048 Vision” will remain a beautiful blueprint in a room full of people who are just looking for a candle to see through the night.

(The writer is a battle hardened Infantry Officer who served the Sri Lanka Army for over 36 years, dedicating 20 of those to active combat. In addition to his military service, Dr Perera is a respected International Researcher and Writer, having authored more than 200 research articles and 16 books. He holds a PhD in economics and is an entrepreneur and International Analyst specialising in National Security, economics and politics. He can be reached at [email protected] )

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