By: Staff Writer
August 09, Colombo (LNW): Sri Lanka’s fishermen are facing another environmental uncertainty as El Niño develops in the Pacific Ocean. Although the phenomenon originates thousands of kilometres away, changes associated with El Niño can influence ocean temperatures, winds, currents and marine ecosystems across the wider region.
For Sri Lanka, the concern is straightforward: when ocean conditions change, fish may change their location, feeding patterns and spawning conditions. That can directly affect fishermen whose livelihoods depend on predictable fishing grounds.
What El Niño Can Change
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Its effects can extend into the Indian Ocean through changes in atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions.
The World Meteorological Organization has warned of developing El Niño conditions during 2026, while climate monitoring agencies have indicated that the event could persist into 2027.
The significance for Sri Lanka is not that El Niño will automatically reduce every fish population. The relationship is much more complicated.
Fish populations depend on temperature, currents, food availability, oxygen levels, spawning conditions and fishing pressure. Changes in these factors can cause particular species to move away from traditional fishing grounds or alter their breeding and feeding patterns.
Fishermen May Pay the Price
For fishermen, even a change in fish distribution can become an economic problem.
If commercially important fish move farther offshore, fishermen may have to travel greater distances to find them. That means more fuel, longer fishing trips and greater risks. Small-scale fishermen, who generally have fewer financial resources, can be particularly vulnerable.
Scientific research on tuna fisheries in the Indian Ocean has found a relationship between sea-surface temperature and tuna availability during El Niño and La Niña events. The research indicates that tuna catches can vary considerably according to ocean conditions.
This does not mean that El Niño will necessarily produce a collapse in Sri Lankan fish stocks. Instead, it creates another source of uncertainty for an industry already under pressure.
Fish Stocks Already Face Pressure
Sri Lanka’s fisheries are entering this period with evidence of longer-term changes in marine resources.
A recent scientific study comparing research surveys conducted in the late 1970s and around 1980 with a survey carried out in 2018 found substantially lower measured fish abundance. The researchers also identified declines in catch-per-unit-effort for several fish groups and smaller average sizes among some commercially important species.
These findings are important because climate variability is only one part of the problem.
Fishing pressure, habitat degradation, pollution and changing ocean conditions can interact. Separating the effect of El Niño from these other pressures is therefore essential before drawing conclusions about future fish populations.
Monitoring Is Now Critical
Sri Lanka needs better information if fishermen are to cope with these changes.
Regular fish-stock surveys should be combined with monitoring of sea temperature, ocean currents, catch levels and the movement of important commercial species. Fishermen should also receive timely information about weather and ocean conditions so they can make better decisions about where and when to fish.
The danger is not simply that El Niño could reduce catches.
The greater danger is that an already pressured fishing industry may face another environmental shock without adequate information, financial protection or alternative livelihoods.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon. But its consequences for Sri Lankan fishermen will depend largely on the condition of the marine ecosystem and the country’s ability to manage it.
The question facing Sri Lanka is therefore not whether El Niño will empty its territorial waters. It is whether the country is prepared for a changing ocean while its fishermen are already struggling to make a living from it.
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