In the intricate landscape of Sri Lanka’s economic challenges, President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s unveiling of the 2024 Budget assumes paramount importance. This analysis seeks to unravel the layers of complexity inherent in the budget, offering a nuanced perspective on its potential implications for a nation grappling with multifaceted economic dilemmas.

A Dismal Economic Landscape: IMF Conditions and Citizen Distress

President Wickremesinghe’s 2024 Budget, potentially his final financial blueprint before a pivotal presidential election, unfolds against the backdrop of pressing concerns. The document’s alignment with conditions set forth by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remains elusive, exposing the President’s struggle to implement critical reforms amid ongoing economic distress experienced by the populace.

Skepticism Amidst Presidential Declarations: A Discrepancy in Perception

The President’s buoyant declaration of the budget as a success contrasts starkly with prevailing skepticism among the citizenry. The discernible dissonance between the budget’s promises and the immediate needs of the people underscores a growing disparity in public perception, challenging the narrative of positive change.

Budgetary Disparity: The Deficit Dilemma

A meticulous examination of the budget reveals a concerning deficit, with proposed expenditures totaling seven trillion rupees against a revenue projection of four trillion. This Rs. 3 trillion deficit represents a significant 19% increase from the 2023 fiscal year, constituting 9.1% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Borrowing and Taxation Strategies: The Balancing Act

The budget’s reliance on domestic borrowing, exemplified by an elevated borrowing limit of 7.35 trillion, invites scrutiny. While an increase in Value Added Tax (VAT) to 18% aims to bolster revenue, the sparing of the affluent from additional taxes prompts questions about the delicate balance between economic liberalism and the President’s political allegiances.

Systemic Failures: The Chasm Between Promise and Reality

Despite lofty promises of transformative change, the budget falls short in addressing systemic issues such as corruption, inefficient public administration, and the mismanagement of public enterprises. The persistent gap between rhetorical commitments and tangible outcomes underscores the formidable challenges of achieving economic equilibrium within the existing political and economic paradigm.

Selective Reforms: A Political Gambit with IMF Implications

President Wickremesinghe’s discernibly selective approach to implementing IMF-mandated reforms, guided by political considerations, imperils the prospects of stabilizing the financial sector and fostering comprehensive economic growth. The budget’s emphasis on privatization raises transparency concerns, particularly in matters related to land ownership and its impact on marginalized communities.

The Urgent Need for Transformative Political Will

As Sri Lanka grapples with economic uncertainties, the 2024 Budget underscores the urgent need for a political and social framework prioritizing genuine reform over political expediency. Corruption, deeply entrenched in the prevailing political culture, stands as a significant impediment to economic progress, necessitating a transformative political will that transcends mere rhetoric.

Charting a New Course Amidst Uncertainty

The future trajectory of Sri Lanka’s economic landscape hinges not solely on the economic efficacy of the 2024 Budget but on the dismantling of a systemic framework that perpetuates grand promises without delivering tangible results. A paradigm shift toward a new direction, untainted by corruption and driven by pragmatic reform, becomes imperative for the nation’s well-being and the preservation of its diverse societal fabric. It is crucial to recognize that neither Ranil Wickramasinghe nor Sajith Premadasa appears to offer an alternative within the confines of the current corrupt neoliberal system, despite their claims of advocating a “Social Market Economy,” similar to Chandrika’s “Human Faced Open Economy”. Both have failed to bring about tangible results that could uplift the economic realities of the country. Therefore, this marks the last opportunity for the people of Sri Lanka to apply the brakes on this corrupt system. The National People’s Power (NPP) emerges as a potential transformative force, untarnished by the history that plagues other parties. Recent pre-poll surveys have indicated that Anura Kumara Dissanayake is a potential contender to win the Presidential election due in October 2024. The people seem to be rallying around AKD to eradicate corruption and overhaul the present corrupt political culture, resonating with urgency and beckoning the nation to collectively shape its destiny in the face of challenging times.

Shantha Jayarathne
Former Senior Consultant
Sri Lanka Institute of Development Administration (SLIDA)
20.11.2023
[email protected]