Sri Lanka’s economic recovery is facing renewed uncertainty, but the most immediate concern is food security. A recent assessment by the World Food Programme (WFP) warns that escalating tensions in the Middle East are beginning to disrupt the country’s ability to maintain stable and affordable food supplies, placing millions of households at risk.
The problem begins with energy. Global oil prices have surged amid tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, pushing domestic fuel prices up by 33% to 40%. For Sri Lanka, which relies heavily on imported energy, this increase is quickly passed on to consumers. Higher fuel costs raise transportation and electricity expenses, directly increasing the price of food from farm to market.
Agriculture, the backbone of rural livelihoods, is particularly vulnerable. Rising fertiliser prices and supply disruptions are increasing production costs, making it harder for farmers to maintain yields. The situation is worsened by instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global fertiliser shipments. Since Sri Lanka imports nearly all of its urea requirements, any disruption leads to immediate shortages or higher costs.
These pressures are already visible in food markets. Prices of essential imported items such as wheat, rice, and vegetable oil are increasing, adding to the burden on consumers. In 2025 alone, Sri Lanka spent around $2.5 billion on food imports, highlighting its dependence on global markets. When international prices rise, local households feel the impact almost instantly.
While macroeconomic conditions have improved since the 2022 crisis, the WFP stresses that food security remains fragile. Many families are still recovering from earlier shocks, including the effects of Cyclone Ditwah, which disrupted livelihoods and increased food insecurity in several regions.
The risk now is that rising costs could reverse recent gains. As food prices increase, households may be forced to reduce both the quality and quantity of their diets. This is particularly concerning in rural and low-income communities, where food expenditure already takes up a large share of income.
Supply chain disruptions are adding further strain. Delays and higher shipping costs are affecting the timely arrival of both food and agricultural inputs. This creates uncertainty not only for consumers but also for farmers planning future production cycles.
The WFP warns that without timely intervention, these overlapping pressures could deepen food insecurity across the country. Stabilising fuel prices, ensuring access to fertiliser, and maintaining steady food imports will be critical in the months ahead.
Sri Lanka’s recovery cannot be measured by economic indicators alone. Ensuring that households have reliable access to affordable food will be the true test of resilience in the face of global uncertainty.
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