Asia to drive global GDP past $150 tn by 2030: IMF forecasts
The IMF-based figures project the same three largest national economies in 2030 as in 2026. The United States leads at $37.7 trillion, followed by China at $26 trillion and Germany at $6.2 trillion. Together, these three economies are projected to add more than $10 trillion in economic output between 2026 and 2030, led by China.
The Visual Capitalist graphic is based on projections from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. Forecasts were unavailable for Afghanistan, Bolivia, Cuba, Eritrea, Lebanon, North Korea, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Syria and Venezuela, Visual Capitalist said in a press release.
The forecast shows a very narrow race for third place in 2030. Germany is projected at $6.178 trillion, compared with $6.173 trillion for India, a gap of $5 billion. India could soon overtake Germany in nominal GDP if current growth trajectories continue, while the ranking is already different on a purchasing power parity basis, where India’s economy is roughly three times Germany’s.
Asia and the Middle East are projected to generate $55.7 trillion in economic output by 2030, accounting for more than a third of the global economy. After China and India, Japan is forecast to be the region’s next-largest economy at $5 trillion, followed by South Korea at $2.3 trillion and Indonesia at $2.1 trillion. Visual Capitalist noted that Japan, once the world’s second-largest economy, was surpassed by China in 2010 and Germany in 2024.
Europe’s economy is projected at $37 trillion in 2030 and is expected to account for roughly a fifth of global output. Assuming no new additions or withdrawals, European Union (EU) member countries are forecast to reach a combined nominal GDP of $26.5 trillion, led by Germany, France at $4 trillion and Italy at $3 trillion.
The United Kingdom is projected to remain Europe’s largest non-EU economy at $5.1 trillion, followed by Russia at $2.6 trillion; Russia is among the few major economies expected to contract between 2026 and 2030.
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