Will the BJP Gain a Foothold in Key Indian States in Upcoming Assembly Elections?
Amid the scorching heat of an Indian summer, political temperatures are rising with four states — Assam, Kerala (recently renamed Keralam), Tamil Nadu and West Bengal — and one Union Territory, Puducherry, voting in assembly elections over the next three weeks. Assam, Keralam and Puducherry will vote first on April 9, Tamil Nadu will follow on April 23, and West Bengal will vote on two days — April 23 and 29.
While Assam and Puducherry are ruled by Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance, West Bengal, Keralam and Tamil Nadu are ruled by the opposition. The BJP has never been in power in the latter three states, finding it difficult to break into the strongholds of regional parties. The BJP is perceived largely as a Hindi belt party of the north, while the regional parties in power in these states gain traction with pride in their individual mother tongues – Bangla, Malayalam and Tamil and in their respective cultures. Will the BJP be able to improve its tally in these states this time around?
The most keenly watched and also the most contentious of the upcoming electoral contests is the one unfolding in West Bengal, where the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to unseat Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). The TMC has been in power for three straight terms in Bengal, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have turned their full firepower to oust Banerjee, India’s only woman chief minister, from power. Shah is personally overseeing the BJP’s campaign in West Bengal and has shifted base to the state for a fortnight to ensure the BJP’s victory.
All eyes are on the impact of the controversial Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, which was carried out over the last couple of months, in Bengal. The Election Commission of India (ECI), which carried out the SIR exercise, is widely alleged to be working at the behest of the BJP-led central government, and is said to have deleted the names of over two million voters from the state’s electoral rolls.
Like Bengal, the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala are strongholds of regional parties — the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu, and the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M)-led Left Democratic Front in Kerala. All three states have powerful chief ministers at the helm — M.K. Stalin in Tamil Nadu, Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala and Banerjee in Bengal; the election campaigns in these states are largely dominated by these individual leaders. Banerjee, who has served three consecutive terms as chief minister since 2011, is popularly called “Didi” or elder sister. She single-handedly ended the 34-year-long CPM rule in West Bengal in 2011, and in the 2021 assembly elections, the CPM did not win even a single seat. The TMC swept the 2021 polls, winning 215 of the 294 seats in the assembly, while the BJP won 77 seats.
The BJP believes that it has a good chance of staging an electoral upset in Bengal in this election. This is primarily because in the 2021 election, the BJP secured 38 percent of the votes compared with the TMC’s 48 percent.
The BJP has declared the current election a referendum on Banerjee. It has fielded the Suvendu Adhikari, the former chief of the BJP’s Bengal unit, against Banerjee in her home constituency of Bhabanipur, in south Kolkata. Adhikari had defeated Banerjee in the Nandigram constituency in 2021. It would be a major blow to the TMC if he repeats that feat this time.
In Bengal, the SIR exercise has stirred immense public anger against the ECI and the BJP, as it is perceived as an exclusionary exercise disenfranchising genuine voters. Most of those adversely affected by SIR are Muslims. 27 percent of West Bengal’s population is Muslim, and they are a major vote bank for Banerjee.
Banerjee’s robust track record of women-centric welfare schemes and championing of regional Bengali pride has generally worked to her advantage. This time around, voters will also factor in the BJP’s targeting of Bengali migrant workers by terming them as “Bangladeshis” and “foreigners” while casting their vote.
The parties in power in Bengal, Keralam and Tamil Nadu are part of the opposition INDIA alliance. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin is seeking a second term after his 2021 victory. The son and successor of DMK patriarch M. K. Karunanidhi, Stalin’s appeal lies in being a modern administrator with grassroots appeal due to his popular welfare schemes. In addition to developing Tamil Nadu as a major manufacturing and economic hub, the DMK has also ensured that the state reflects strong secular and democratic values.
The DMK’s alliance with the Congress ensured victory in the 2021 assembly election, with the combine winning 133 of the 234 seats. Incidentally, Stalin and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi also enjoy a strong personal friendship. The DMK’s traditional opponent, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), has been considerably weakened after the demise of its leader J. Jayalalitha. This time around, the entry of the actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) into the electoral arena could dent the DMK’s performance.
Interestingly, despite Modi’s repeated attempts at wooing the Tamil electorate, the BJP has not been able to win a single seat in the state to date. It is contesting the polls in alliance with AIADMK.
Keralam usually witnesses a two-front electoral battle between the CPM-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, with power alternating between the two alliances. This time, the BJP is focusing on those constituencies where it had managed to secure a double-digit vote share in 2021, turning the contests for these seats into three-cornered ones. 81-year-old Pinarayi Vijayan, who heads the LDF and won successive victories in 2016 and 2021, is now seeking a third term as chief minister.
Unlike in the past when the LDF’s campaign was centered on ideology, this time around the electoral contest in Keralam is personality-centric and focused on Vijayan rather than the communist party.
Sensing opportunity in the anti-incumbency mood in Keralam, the Congress has been campaigning assiduously in the state with the Congress party’s Gandhi siblings spearheading the party’s bid to bring the UDF back to power. But the party’s Keralam unit is riven with factionalism and could spoil the party’s chances.
Unlike elsewhere in the country, where it is Modi’s leadership and charisma that wins the BJP elections, in the northeastern state of Assam, it is Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is face of the BJP’s election campaign. In fact, Sarma is the most prominent BJP face in the entire Northeast region.
A disgruntled Congressman who joined the BJP a few years ago, Sarma is now seeking a second term as chief minister of Assam. He has been instrumental in orchestrating the BJP’s strategy in the region.
Sarma’s electoral strategy is two-fold. On the one hand, he has wooed women voters through his women-focused development programs. On the other, he has polarized the electorate by deliberately deepening the communal divide in Assam by resorting to Muslim “miyan” bashing. Hindus constitute 61 percent of the population in Assam, with Muslims comprising 34 percent. Sarma frequently panders to local majoritarian sentiments by ratcheting up anti-immigrant rhetoric, claiming that Muslims are Rohingyas and Bangladeshis, who need to be evicted.
The Congress has projected Gaurav Gogoi as its chief ministerial face. It recent days, it has launched a personal attack on Sarma and his family, alleging they concealed foreign properties and assets, and held multiple passports. Will the Congress party’s last-minute push be adequate to knock out the well- entrenched Sarma from power?
In Puducherry, Chief Minister N. Rangasamy of the All India N. R. Congress party will be looking to return to power as part of the BJP-led NDA alliance.
Although these are state assembly elections, they are significant for national politics. Votes will be counted and results announced on May 4. The Bengal election is a high-stakes ego battle not only for Modi and Shah but also for Banerjee. Should voters give Banerjee a fourth successive term as chief minister, she will be keen to carve for herself and the TMC a larger role in national politics. India will be watching to see how effective Tamil Nadu’s Dravidian ideology is in keeping out the BJP’s Hindutva politics.
